The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 41.84%2.39fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.86%41.77%41.89%43.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.012.182.202.3349.75%45.86%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.451%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%28.55%28.38%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4833.33%31.54%31.25%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.51%29.68%29.73%30.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.103.2433.90%32.48%32.26%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 41.84%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 28.41%; Draw: 29.74%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.48, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -2.51%E -1.08%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 04:55
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.29%EV -4.18%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.83%EV -1.12%E -0.321%K -0.451%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.89%EV -3.63%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 04:50
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 04:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.01%EV -7.11%E -3.20%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -7.20%E -2.31%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 04:55
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.11%E -3.20%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 04:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.11%E -3.20%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 04:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.65%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 04:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.65%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 04:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.65%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 04:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.65%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 04:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.65%E -2.36%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 04:30
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.07%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.92%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 04:55
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 04:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.80%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 04:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -14.76%E -4.92%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-21 04:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.09%EV -12.97%E -6.23%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.43%EV -12.48%E -4.05%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.48%EV -11.66%E -3.93%K -5.92%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-21 04:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -14.22%E -6.94%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -13.34%E -4.37%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.36%EV -12.26%E -4.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-21 04:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 43.26%EV -15.90%E -7.91%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.23%EV -12.48%E -4.05%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-21 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-03-21 04:55