The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v Urawa Red Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 05:00 UTC

Final: Fagiano Okayama 1–1 Urawa Red Diamonds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 33.73%2.96fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.960%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.75%33.74%33.73%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.742.9139.22%36.77%36.56%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.790%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.86%34.42%34.33%36.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.662.682.8640.00%37.65%37.31%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.84%31.94%33.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.872.883.0035.71%34.84%34.78%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 33.73%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit): 34.45%; Draw: 31.81%. For Urawa Red Diamonds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.86, with an expected value of -1.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -1.83%E -0.630%K -0.960%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.16%EV -3.88%E -1.39%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.09%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-31 04:50
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.86%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.86%EV -1.47%E -0.514%K -0.790%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-31 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -5.54%E -1.98%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-31 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.80%EV -7.67%E -2.86%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -5.19%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-31 04:50
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-31 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-31 04:50
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 04:50
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 04:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 04:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 04:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.23%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 04:40
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.79%EV -8.24%E -3.03%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.30%EV -7.67%E -2.86%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-31 04:50
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.79%EV -8.24%E -3.03%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.30%EV -7.67%E -2.86%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-31 04:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.49%EV -8.24%E -3.03%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.77%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.74%EV -8.69%E -3.03%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-31 04:50
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.92%E -3.30%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -8.92%E -3.30%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -12.15%E -4.76%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-31 04:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -10.60%E -4.00%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-31 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -11.28%E -4.29%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-31 04:50
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -11.28%E -4.29%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-31 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.97%EV -11.62%E -4.43%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.79%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-31 04:50
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.97%EV -11.62%E -4.43%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.79%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-31 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.12%EV -13.98%E -5.48%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.80%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.07%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-31 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.0%2026-05-31 04:50