The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 05:00 UTC

Final: Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Shimizu S Pulse

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 40.13%2.49fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%40.16%40.25%41.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3846.51%43.65%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.447%
Kelly +0.629%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.01%29.29%29.25%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.4634.48%32.39%32.26%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.56%30.50%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.993.003.1534.48%33.45%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 40.13%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 29.35%; Draw: 30.52%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.23%EV -5.70%E -2.43%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.01%EV +1.55%E +0.447%K +0.629%G +0.010%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 04:46
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.70%E -2.43%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 04:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 04:09
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 04:55
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.51%E -3.73%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 04:10
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.51%E -3.73%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 04:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.99%EV -10.92%E -4.92%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.13%EV -7.82%E -2.59%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -13.73%E -6.38%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-17 04:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.48%EV -5.30%E -2.25%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -8.43%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.65%EV -7.21%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 04:55
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.50%E -1.89%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 04:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 04:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 04:40
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 04:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 04:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 04:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -11.72%E -5.33%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -5.38%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 04:11
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.50%E -1.89%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 04:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -13.73%E -6.38%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -9.95%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.89%E -5.13%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.89%E -5.13%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.89%E -5.13%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -14.89%E -5.13%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-05-17 04:50