The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fagiano Okayama v Mito HollyHock

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:00 UTC

Final: Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito HollyHock

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 59.15%1.69fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -6.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.51%59.21%59.22%60.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.561.571.6269.93%64.01%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mito HollyHock (Visit)

Prediction 15.76%6.34fair odd
EV +0.419%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.69%15.79%15.67%16.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.765.806.3718.87%17.35%17.24%15.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.09%3.99fair odd
EV -0.152%
Edge -0.038%
Kelly -0.051%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.91%25.00%25.11%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.603.9829.41%27.52%27.78%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 59.15%; Mito HollyHock (Visit): 15.76%; Draw: 25.09%. For Mito HollyHock (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.419%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.95%E -3.74%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 15.14%EV +0.419%E +0.066%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -0.152%E -0.038%K -0.051%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-21 09:59
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.43%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -1.47%E -0.236%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-21 09:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV -2.26%E -0.365%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV -2.26%E -0.365%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 09:55
BetAnything🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV -2.26%E -0.365%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -11.28%E -7.52%K -22.56%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -2.26%E -0.365%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:00
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.75%EV -4.18%E -2.58%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.73%EV -4.63%E -0.765%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.52%EV -6.42%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.40%EV -5.95%E -3.74%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.67%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.36%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 09:36
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 09:55
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -8.91%E -5.79%K -16.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 09:59
picklebet_au🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.31%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-21 09:36
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.67%EV -7.73%E -4.95%K -13.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-21 09:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.23%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -5.41%E -0.902%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -7.68%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.98%EV -4.77%E -2.96%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.98%EV -4.77%E -2.96%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.92%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 09:05
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.92%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.22%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:05
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.59%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -8.57%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 09:05
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -5.95%E -3.74%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 09:45
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.20%EV -5.95%E -3.74%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:00
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.56%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -8.43%E -2.31%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:50
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.14%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -12.19%E -3.48%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -9.35%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -12.19%E -3.48%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.74%EV -8.32%E -5.37%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -10.14%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:36
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.74%EV -8.32%E -5.37%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -10.14%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:36
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:40
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.51%EV -6.55%E -4.14%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.19%E -3.48%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:45
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:55
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 09:45
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.70%E -4.32%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-21 09:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.18%EV -10.69%E -7.08%K -20.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.97%EV -13.30%E -2.42%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -14.70%E -4.32%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-21 09:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.97%EV -8.91%E -5.79%K -16.50%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.82%EV -14.87%E -2.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 09:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.48%EV -11.28%E -7.52%K -22.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.24%EV -14.87%E -2.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.28%EV -12.95%E -3.73%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 09:37
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 59.55%EV -15.42%E -10.78%K -35.86%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.77%EV -14.87%E -2.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.68%EV -13.45%E -3.90%K -5.49%G +0.000%17.4%2026-10-21 09:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.71%EV -10.09%E -6.64%K -19.41%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -16.45%E -3.10%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -8.43%E -2.31%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-21 09:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-10-21 09:45
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-10-21 09:50
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.67%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-10-21 09:55
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-10-21 09:55