The School of Odds
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Fagiano Okayama v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 03:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 28.97%3.45fair odd
EV -0.632%
Edge -0.184%
Kelly -0.260%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.19%29.01%28.96%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.4333.90%32.10%32.26%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 41.26%2.42fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.23%41.22%41.21%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.212.252.3148.31%45.17%44.44%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.77%3.36fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.27%29.76%29.83%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.063.003.2333.90%32.68%33.33%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 28.97%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 41.26%; Draw: 29.77%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.43, with an expected value of -0.632%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV -0.632%E -0.184%K -0.260%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.86%EV -4.69%E -2.03%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -3.84%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 03:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -4.98%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.65%EV -7.58%E -3.38%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -7.12%E -2.28%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 03:34
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.85%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 03:05
BetAnything🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.85%E -1.80%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 03:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 03:35
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 03:49
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.23%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 03:05
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.74%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.71%E -2.49%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 03:34
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -8.74%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.71%E -2.49%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 03:35
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.19%E -3.29%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -4.74%E -1.48%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 03:09
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.19%E -3.29%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 03:05
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.19%E -3.29%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 03:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.19%E -3.29%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 03:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.19%E -3.29%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 03:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -11.64%E -3.82%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -11.29%E -5.25%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -4.74%E -1.48%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 03:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 28.96%EV -12.22%E -4.03%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.79%EV -13.35%E -6.36%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-08 03:33
Unibet (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 28.80%EV -12.51%E -4.14%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.02%EV -14.59%E -7.05%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.19%EV -11.29%E -3.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-08 03:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.23%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 03:05
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.23%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 03:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.23%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 03:04
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.23%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.69%E -3.56%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 03:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -13.35%E -6.36%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -12.18%E -4.13%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-08 03:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -14.54%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -13.35%E -6.36%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -9.20%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-08 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-03-08 03:19