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Fagiano Okayama v Gamba Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.754%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.72%31.28%31.32%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.1536.36%34.46%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gamba Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 39.42%2.54fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.741%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.86%39.44%39.48%40.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4946.51%43.49%43.48%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%29.27%29.20%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.103.2533.33%32.04%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 31.23%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 39.42%; Draw: 29.35%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%EV -1.62%E -0.515%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.86%EV -1.84%E -0.741%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.43%EV -6.67%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-22 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.68%E -1.88%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.20%EV -6.18%E -2.60%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -8.43%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-22 03:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.18%E -2.60%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 07:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-22 03:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -5.39%E -2.25%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-22 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -8.55%E -3.68%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-21 07:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -8.55%E -3.68%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-21 07:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.87%E -2.67%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.36%E -3.13%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.33%E -4.06%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-21 23:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.33%E -4.06%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-21 23:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.33%E -4.06%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-21 13:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.33%E -4.06%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-21 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.33%E -4.06%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-21 23:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -10.05%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -6.18%E -2.60%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-22 03:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.99%E -3.86%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -11.31%E -5.02%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-02-21 07:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%EV -10.99%E -3.86%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -15.25%E -7.09%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-21 07:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.03%EV -11.62%E -4.10%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -14.46%E -6.66%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.51%EV -9.61%E -3.12%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-21 07:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.31%E -5.02%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 13:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.31%E -5.02%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.31%E -5.02%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 13:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.31%E -5.02%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 13:34 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -12.55%E -4.48%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.89%EV -13.28%E -6.03%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-21 17:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -14.11%E -5.13%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -13.28%E -6.03%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -7.55%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-21 07:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.