The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 05:00 UTC

Final: Fagiano Okayama 0–4 FC Tokyo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fagiano Okayama (Local)

Prediction 24.74%4.04fair odd
EV +3.15%
Edge +0.754%
Kelly +0.992%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%24.78%24.71%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.663.604.1729.85%27.36%27.78%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 48.73%2.05fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.57%48.79%48.72%51.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.901.902.0058.48%52.65%52.63%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -0.499%
Edge -0.133%
Kelly -0.182%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.43%26.56%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.403.7530.77%29.01%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 24.74%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 48.73%; Draw: 26.53%. For Fagiano Okayama (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 22.83%EV +3.15%E +0.754%K +0.992%G +0.031%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.36%EV -7.90%E -4.18%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 04:50
Pinnacle🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 24.77%EV -3.29%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.41%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -0.499%E -0.133%K -0.182%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-31 04:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -3.53%E -0.906%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.40%EV -13.75%E -7.77%K -17.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-31 04:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.88%EV -4.77%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.87%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.15%E -0.864%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 04:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.88%EV -4.77%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.87%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.15%E -0.864%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 04:50
BetAnything🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.88%EV -4.77%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.87%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.15%E -0.864%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 04:50
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.60%EV -4.77%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%EV -5.95%E -3.08%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 01:04
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 04:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -5.95%E -3.08%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 01:05
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 04:50
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 04:50
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 04:43
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -7.90%E -4.18%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-31 04:45
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.01%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 04:55
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 04:55
picklebet_au🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 04:40
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 01:05
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 01:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.14%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.44%EV -6.44%E -3.35%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.60%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 14:29
Bet Right🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 01:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.13%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 01:05
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 04:15
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.06%EV -7.90%E -4.18%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 04:16
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 01:05
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 04:50
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:55
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:45
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.95%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 04:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -12.19%E -3.43%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -2.54%E -1.27%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 00:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -12.19%E -3.43%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -2.54%E -1.27%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 00:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -12.19%E -3.43%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.64%EV -12.28%E -6.82%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.69%EV -12.97%E -3.95%K -5.69%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-31 04:38
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%EV -12.19%E -3.43%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 50.00%EV -16.67%E -9.75%K -23.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.91%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-31 04:40
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -4.00%E -2.03%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 04:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -4.00%E -2.03%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 04:16
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -4.00%E -2.03%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -4.49%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 00:05
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.43%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -9.85%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 04:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -14.66%E -4.25%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -11.11%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -14.66%E -4.25%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -11.11%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -15.90%E -4.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.39%EV -12.28%E -6.82%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -11.11%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-31 01:06
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -17.14%E -5.12%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -8.39%E -4.46%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -13.77%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-10-31 04:16
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-10-31 04:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-10-31 04:55
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-10-31 04:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%1.9%2026-10-31 04:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%1.9%2026-10-31 04:40