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Fagiano Okayama v Cerezo Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 34.47%2.90fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.09%34.52%34.47%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.632.7940.00%37.68%38.02%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cerezo Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 36.82%2.72fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.22%36.83%36.80%37.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.492.502.6242.55%40.17%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.77%28.66%28.73%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.183.203.3532.26%31.41%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 34.47%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 36.82%; Draw: 28.71%. For Cerezo Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.62, with an expected value of -3.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -3.83%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.75%EV -3.53%E -1.35%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-24 03:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.11%E -2.40%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-24 03:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.11%E -2.40%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-24 03:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.31%EV -6.24%E -2.30%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.89%EV -6.84%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.98%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 03:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.11%E -2.40%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -7.62%E -2.84%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.66%EV -7.21%E -2.86%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-24 02:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -7.62%E -2.84%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.66%EV -7.21%E -2.86%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-24 02:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.09%EV -7.97%E -2.98%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.46%EV -10.53%E -4.33%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-24 03:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -8.66%E -3.27%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -11.63%E -4.85%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-24 03:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.22%EV -9.35%E -3.55%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.74%EV -9.79%E -4.00%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.22%EV -9.35%E -3.55%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.74%EV -9.79%E -4.00%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-24 02:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -9.79%E -4.00%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-24 02:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -9.79%E -4.00%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.38%E -3.99%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.95%E -3.18%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-24 03:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -10.38%E -3.99%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -9.79%E -4.00%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-24 02:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -13.83%E -5.53%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -13.47%E -5.73%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -9.56%E -3.04%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-24 02:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 1.0% | 2026-05-24 03:50 |