The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 34.72%2.88fair odd
EV +4.15%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.69%34.36%34.73%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.623.0040.00%37.68%38.17%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.811%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.22%37.34%36.91%42.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.452.502.6545.87%40.85%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.36%3.53fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -0.969%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.30%28.37%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.203.153.4132.26%31.23%31.75%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 34.72%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 36.93%; Draw: 28.36%. For Cerezo Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV +4.15%E +1.38%K +2.08%G +0.086%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -19.50%E -8.95%K -16.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.59%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 01:00
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV +0.682%E +0.235%K +0.359%G +0.002%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.81%EV -16.18%E -7.13%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -3.59%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 05:55
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.08%EV -4.18%E -1.51%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.53%EV -2.15%E -0.811%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.39%EV -3.30%E -0.969%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 05:49
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.00%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 05:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.42%E -1.95%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 05:39
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.84%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 05:19
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.26%E -2.89%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 05:20
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.62%EV -6.96%E -2.60%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.82%EV -6.95%E -2.76%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.84%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 05:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.95%EV -7.30%E -2.74%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -6.99%E -2.13%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 05:39
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 05:20
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 05:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 05:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 05:20
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -7.69%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.84%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 05:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.42%E -1.95%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 05:39
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 05:39
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 05:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.73%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 05:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.28%EV -11.47%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.52%EV -13.96%E -5.99%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 05:38
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -11.47%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -15.07%E -6.55%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.06%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 05:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -11.47%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -15.07%E -6.55%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.06%EV -12.09%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 05:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -13.21%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -13.23%E -5.63%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -10.68%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-22 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-03-22 05:40