The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 06:00 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 6–1 Nagoya Grampus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 39.78%2.51fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.36%39.78%39.84%40.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4445.45%43.56%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 33.19%3.01fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%33.20%33.16%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.752.9038.46%36.27%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.03%3.70fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%27.02%27.00%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.383.373.5930.30%29.55%29.72%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 39.78%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 33.19%; Draw: 27.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.59, with an expected value of -2.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.67%EV -2.94%E -1.21%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37%EV -3.75%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.96%EV -2.94%E -0.820%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-17 05:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -5.33%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -5.41%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 05:45
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.41%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 05:45
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.07%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 05:05
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.07%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 05:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.06%EV -6.41%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -7.54%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 05:40
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.92%EV -7.72%E -3.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.84%EV -6.41%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 05:45
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.92%EV -7.72%E -3.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.84%EV -6.41%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 05:45
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 05:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 05:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 05:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 05:36
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 05:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.70%EV -7.74%E -2.78%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.90%EV -8.62%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 05:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.39%E -3.85%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 05:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.39%E -3.85%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 05:05
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.39%E -3.85%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 05:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.39%E -3.85%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 05:05
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.39%E -3.85%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 05:05
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.50%E -4.67%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -13.05%E -4.98%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-17 05:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -12.49%E -5.68%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -8.73%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-17 05:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.80%EV -12.49%E -5.68%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.67%EV -13.71%E -5.27%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-17 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-05-17 05:45