The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v Kyoto Purple Sanga

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 07:00 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 3–0 Kyoto Purple Sanga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 41.86%2.39fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.61%41.87%41.85%42.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2948.78%45.69%45.45%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 30.84%3.24fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%30.84%30.85%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.1535.71%34.01%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -0.877%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.40%27.29%27.30%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.343.303.5830.77%29.93%30.30%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 41.86%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 30.84%; Draw: 27.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.58, with an expected value of -2.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.25%EV -4.15%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%EV -2.84%E -0.902%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -2.26%E -0.632%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-18 06:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.83%E -2.59%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.93%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.81%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 06:55
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.83%E -2.59%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.18%E -2.11%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 06:55
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.83%E -2.59%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 06:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -6.24%E -2.79%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.23%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -7.72%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 06:54
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.54%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 06:55
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.54%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 06:55
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -11.17%E -3.88%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.18%E -2.11%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 05:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 06:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 06:55
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 06:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.64%E -4.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 06:53
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.64%E -4.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 06:55
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -7.92%E -3.60%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.64%E -4.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 06:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -10.01%E -4.66%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -9.01%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -5.81%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 06:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -10.01%E -4.66%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.17%E -3.88%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.63%EV -10.85%E -5.09%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -8.54%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 06:52
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -12.10%E -5.76%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -8.54%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-18 06:54
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.10%E -5.76%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.47%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-18 05:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -14.20%E -6.93%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -13.64%E -4.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.91%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-18 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 42.31%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.78%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.90%4.1%2026-04-18 06:55