The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba

2026-10-25 06:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 54.44%1.84fair odd
EV -6.91%
Edge -4.04%
Kelly -9.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.44%54.44%54.44%54.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.681.7162.11%59.50%59.52%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 21.52%4.65fair odd
EV -6.38%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.32%21.52%21.52%21.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.294.304.3524.39%23.33%23.26%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV -6.25%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%24.04%24.04%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.813.803.9027.40%26.24%26.32%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 54.44%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 21.52%; Draw: 24.04%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.90, with an expected value of -6.25%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.60%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 06:16
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.60%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 06:15
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 06:15
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:16
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:15
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:16
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:16
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 06:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.57%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -8.53%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 06:16
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.57%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -8.53%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.53%EV -12.35%E -7.67%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -12.26%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-20 06:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.25I 80.00%NM 40.37%1.56I 64.10%NM 32.35%1.85I 54.05%NM 27.28%98.2%2026-10-20 10:45