The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 06:03 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 2–2 JEF United Chiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 52.86%1.89fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.68%53.00%52.90%55.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.731.731.8462.11%57.95%57.80%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.572%
Kelly +0.737%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 4.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%22.80%22.96%23.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.104.104.4727.03%24.42%24.39%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.20%4.13fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.677%
Kelly -0.901%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%24.20%24.14%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.763.804.0228.99%26.63%26.32%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 52.86%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 22.94%; Draw: 24.20%. For JEF United Chiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.36%EV -5.91%E -3.32%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.25%EV +2.56%E +0.572%K +0.737%G +0.019%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.39%EV -9.50%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 05:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -9.61%E -5.62%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV +0.951%E +0.216%K +0.280%G +0.003%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 05:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -9.61%E -5.62%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV +0.951%E +0.216%K +0.280%G +0.003%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 05:05
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.57%EV -10.14%E -5.97%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.33%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 05:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.57%EV -10.14%E -5.97%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.33%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 05:05
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:05
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:05
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:00
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:05
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -0.196%E -0.045%K -0.059%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:00
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -1.34%E -0.312%K -0.407%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 05:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -11.73%E -7.02%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -1.34%E -0.312%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 05:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -11.73%E -7.02%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -1.34%E -0.312%K -0.407%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 05:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -5.91%E -3.32%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 06:00
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 06:00
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -6.44%E -3.64%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 06:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -3.64%E -0.866%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 06:00
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.48%EV -2.74%E -1.49%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.50%EV -5.70%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.02%EV -2.72%E -0.677%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 05:52
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.50%EV -3.80%E -2.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.42%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.50%EV -3.80%E -2.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.42%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -6.44%E -3.64%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -5.63%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 05:52
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -8.03%E -4.61%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.63%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 05:51
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -9.08%E -5.28%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 05:55
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -9.61%E -5.62%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -12.78%E -7.75%K -19.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 05:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.53%EV -14.90%E -9.25%K -24.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -5.93%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -11.68%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-20 06:15
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.47%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -4.42%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 05:52
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.44%E -3.64%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 05:52
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 05:52
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -11.68%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 05:52
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -11.68%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 05:52
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 05:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.70%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.23%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-25 05:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -9.37%E -2.37%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-25 06:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.02%EV -9.61%E -5.62%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.13%EV -10.06%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 06:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -10.52%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 06:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.30%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.94%EV -12.13%E -3.17%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.75%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-25 05:52
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-25 05:45
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -10.14%E -5.97%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 05:52
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 06:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.04%EV -12.26%E -7.38%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -12.82%E -3.37%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.79%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-25 06:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.39%EV -10.14%E -5.97%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.29%EV -13.96%E -3.72%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.32%EV -16.52%E -4.79%K -6.74%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-25 06:00
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -15.11%E -4.08%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 05:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -15.11%E -4.08%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 05:45
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -7.50%E -4.28%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -15.11%E -4.08%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 05:52
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-25 06:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-25 06:01
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.8%2026-10-25 06:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%2.6%2026-10-25 06:01
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.38%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-10-25 06:01
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%6.0%2026-10-25 06:01