The School of Odds
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Cerezo Osaka v FC Tokyo

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 06:00 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 2–2 FC Tokyo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 32.07%3.12fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.39%32.17%32.04%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.803.0137.04%35.16%35.71%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 39.63%2.52fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.55%39.62%39.66%40.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.322.4745.45%43.25%43.10%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.30%3.53fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.431%
Kelly -0.605%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%28.21%28.30%28.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.203.4832.26%30.96%31.25%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 32.07%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 39.63%; Draw: 28.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.48, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.16%EV -3.47%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.19%EV -2.12%E -0.859%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.64%EV -4.33%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 05:30
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.60%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 05:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -5.69%E -2.39%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.60%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 04:50
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -6.36%E -2.18%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -8.07%E -3.48%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.01%E -2.47%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 04:50
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -6.36%E -2.18%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -8.07%E -3.48%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.01%E -2.47%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 04:50
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.00%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.88%E -2.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.60%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 04:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.72%EV -7.96%E -2.77%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.10%EV -10.05%E -4.43%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.18%EV -8.58%E -2.66%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-30 05:37
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.79%EV -8.28%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.25%EV -7.67%E -3.29%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.95%EV -1.50%E -0.431%K -0.605%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 05:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -8.60%E -3.02%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -12.82%E -5.83%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 05:39
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.69%E -2.39%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 05:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.69%E -2.39%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 05:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.69%E -2.39%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 05:20
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.69%E -2.39%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 05:20
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.86%E -3.85%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.60%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-30 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -6.60%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-30 04:50
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.43%E -2.95%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-30 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.26%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 04:40
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.26%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.26%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 04:40
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.21%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.26%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 04:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -13.41%E -4.97%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -12.82%E -5.83%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -10.84%E -3.44%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-30 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-05-30 05:20