The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cerezo Osaka v Avispa Fukuoka

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 06:00 UTC

Final: Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 52.54%1.90fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.22%52.50%52.59%53.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.751.8360.24%57.03%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visit)

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -0.818%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.23%22.04%21.88%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.174.204.4225.64%23.99%23.81%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.777%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.67%25.45%25.53%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.583.603.8429.41%27.96%27.78%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 52.54%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visit): 21.99%; Draw: 25.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.84, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 05:55
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.03%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.84%EV -2.80%E -0.633%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.13%EV -2.21%E -0.575%K -0.777%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 05:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.43%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 05:55
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.43%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 05:55
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.43%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.48%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -5.44%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -7.81%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 05:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -4.34%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 05:45
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -4.34%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 05:45
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -4.34%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 05:45
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 05:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 05:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 05:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 05:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 05:55
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 05:55
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 05:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 05:55
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -9.10%E -5.26%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.64%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 05:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.07%EV -9.63%E -5.60%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.83%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 05:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -10.15%E -5.94%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%EV -11.73%E -6.98%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.23%EV -6.54%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-03 05:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.82%EV -12.78%E -7.70%K -19.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -14.23%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-05-03 05:55