The School of Odds
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Avispa Fukuoka v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 05:00 UTC

Final: Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Vissel Kobe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 22.30%4.48fair odd
EV -0.972%
Edge -0.219%
Kelly -0.282%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.55%22.32%22.33%23.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.074.034.4426.32%24.58%24.84%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 49.39%2.02fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.76%49.27%49.36%50.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.871.9456.18%53.65%53.48%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.31%3.53fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.26%28.40%28.31%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.253.4032.26%31.16%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 22.30%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 49.39%; Draw: 28.31%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.44, with an expected value of -0.972%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.44I 22.52%NM 21.76%EV -0.972%E -0.219%K -0.282%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.81%EV -4.19%E -2.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -3.76%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 04:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -3.42%E -0.791%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.17%EV -8.14%E -4.37%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 04:40
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.32%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.38%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.17%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 02:59
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.32%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 03:09
BetAnything🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.32%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 03:10
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -6.32%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.49%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 03:30
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.32%E -1.51%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 03:09
Betsson🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -7.44%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 03:10
NordicBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -7.44%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -7.15%E -3.80%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-23 03:09
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.43%EV -9.67%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.63%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.24%EV -9.67%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.04%EV -11.10%E -6.17%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -8.00%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 04:39
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:39
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:39
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.67%E -2.97%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-23 04:39
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.79%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -7.64%E -4.09%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 02:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.12%EV -11.90%E -3.01%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.63%EV -9.12%E -4.96%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -5.17%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-23 03:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-23 02:59
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-23 03:09
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-23 03:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -13.02%E -3.34%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-23 02:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.25%E -4.01%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -12.09%E -6.79%K -15.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-23 03:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-05-23 04:50