The School of Odds
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Avispa Fukuoka v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.10%37.59%37.39%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5943.48%41.03%40.82%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 31.87%3.14fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.77%31.81%31.92%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.893.0637.04%34.75%34.60%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.26fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.42%30.60%30.69%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.983.003.1334.84%33.54%33.33%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 37.50%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 31.87%; Draw: 30.63%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.06, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.40%EV -2.89%E -1.11%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV -2.46%E -0.805%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.95%EV -4.13%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.39%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 04:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 04:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.96%EV -6.93%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.70%EV -6.89%E -2.26%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 04:20
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 04:24
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 04:50
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.20%E -2.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 04:20
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.20%E -2.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 04:20
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 04:14
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 04:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 04:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.14%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.56%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 04:19
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 04:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 04:19
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -11.17%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 04:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -11.79%E -4.09%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 04:25
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -11.79%E -4.09%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 04:25
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -12.09%E -4.21%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 04:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.75%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -12.09%E -4.21%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 04:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.21%EV -10.76%E -4.52%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.68%EV -8.52%E -2.97%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.11%EV -7.50%E -2.48%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -11.89%E -5.06%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -9.16%E -3.21%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 04:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.00%EV -13.76%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.94%E -5.16%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -9.64%E -3.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-11 04:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-04-11 04:55