The School of Odds
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Avispa Fukuoka v Shimizu S Pulse

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.85%32.07%31.57%35.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.873.0638.02%34.94%34.84%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +1.64%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.59%39.34%39.99%40.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.322.302.6246.73%43.03%43.48%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.52%3.51fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.719%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%28.59%28.44%29.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.153.4232.79%31.51%31.75%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 31.68%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 39.80%; Draw: 28.52%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -16.69%E -6.35%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV +4.29%E +1.64%K +2.65%G +0.113%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -8.16%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 01:09
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:49
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-18 09:44
BetAnything🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.30%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-18 08:35
Pinnacle🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.60%EV -3.07%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.12%EV -4.07%E -1.69%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -2.46%E -0.719%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-18 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 08:55
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.45%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-18 08:55
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -7.66%E -3.30%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-18 08:55
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -7.66%E -3.30%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-18 08:55
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.56%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 08:55
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-18 08:50
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.73%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-18 08:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-18 08:55
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -8.78%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-18 08:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.09%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-18 08:55
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.09%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.58%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-18 08:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -10.16%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-18 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.22%EV -13.23%E -6.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.47%EV -12.15%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-18 09:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.05%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -14.42%E -6.71%K -12.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -13.01%E -4.27%K -6.35%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-18 09:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 40.67%EV -14.82%E -6.93%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.25%EV -12.15%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-18 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-03-18 09:54