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Avispa Fukuoka v Nagoya Grampus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avispa Fukuoka (Local)
Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.12%23.98%23.98%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.804.0628.57%26.41%26.32%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nagoya Grampus (Visit)
Prediction 47.61%2.10fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.64%47.61%47.68%48.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.931.912.0254.05%51.79%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%28.41%28.34%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4133.33%31.33%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 23.97%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 47.61%; Draw: 28.42%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.06, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.81%EV -2.69%E -0.663%K -0.879%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.85%EV -3.83%E -1.90%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.34%EV -3.08%E -0.902%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 06:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.13%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 06:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -4.13%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 06:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -5.09%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -8.59%E -4.47%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -5.07%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 06:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.24%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 06:33 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-07 06:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-07 06:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -7.72%E -2.01%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 06:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 06:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.12%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 06:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-07 06:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.07%E -4.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.52%E -3.43%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.98%EV -7.64%E -3.94%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 06:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.72%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.97%E -5.87%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-07 06:32 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.17%EV -13.72%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.03%EV -11.92%E -6.45%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 28.81%EV -14.16%E -4.69%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-07 06:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.44%EV -14.91%E -4.20%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.64%EV -11.45%E -6.15%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -16.11%E -4.60%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.65%EV -10.50%E -5.58%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-07 06:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.