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Avispa Fukuoka v Kyoto Purple Sanga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avispa Fukuoka (Local)
Prediction 29.52%3.39fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.965%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.72%29.58%29.51%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.103.103.2833.90%32.27%32.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)
Prediction 39.98%2.50fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%39.92%40.03%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4246.51%43.57%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.49%3.28fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%30.49%30.46%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.013.003.1834.48%33.24%33.33%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 29.52%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 39.98%; Draw: 30.49%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.18, with an expected value of -3.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.53%EV -3.16%E -0.965%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.02%EV -3.24%E -1.34%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.45%EV -3.03%E -0.954%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-06 04:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.04%E -1.68%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -5.47%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 04:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.04%E -2.57%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.47%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 04:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.51%EV -6.71%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -6.84%E -2.93%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.47%EV -6.69%E -2.19%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-06 04:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.26%EV -8.83%E -3.87%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-06 04:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.90%EV -11.23%E -5.06%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -12.03%E -5.47%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.84%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-06 04:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.47%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 04:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -12.03%E -5.47%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.47%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-06 04:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-06 04:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.48%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.04%E -3.49%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-06 04:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.84%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-06 04:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 04:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 04:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 04:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.03%E -4.46%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 04:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -12.02%E -4.03%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -4.84%E -2.03%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-06 04:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -12.91%E -4.38%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -14.03%E -6.53%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -10.05%E -3.41%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-06 04:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.21% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-05-06 04:24 |