The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 10:03 UTC

Final: Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Prediction 36.75%2.72fair odd
EV +2.53%
Edge +0.907%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.04%36.69%36.68%38.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.512.502.7945.45%39.82%40.00%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 34.36%2.91fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.96%34.34%34.37%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.672.702.8239.22%37.42%37.04%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.520%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.01%28.97%28.95%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.4033.33%31.62%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 36.75%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 34.36%; Draw: 28.89%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV +2.53%E +0.907%K +1.41%G +0.036%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.71%EV -8.61%E -3.24%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.25%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 09:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.68%EV -1.51%E -0.564%K -0.900%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.90%EV -5.86%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 10:00
BetAnything🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.68%EV -1.51%E -0.564%K -0.900%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.90%EV -5.86%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-21 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.85%EV -2.25%E -0.845%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.80%EV -5.86%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 09:59
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%EV -2.62%E -0.987%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.35%EV -3.11%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.09%EV -3.79%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-21 09:59
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:55
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 10:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 09:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.19%EV -5.56%E -2.16%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.57%EV -7.57%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.24%EV -8.12%E -2.55%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:59
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -1.77%E -0.520%K -0.736%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 04:15
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.66%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 04:55
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 09:29
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 09:50
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:55
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-21 09:30
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-21 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 09:15
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 09:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 09:15
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 10:00
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 09:50
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 05:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -9.64%E -3.66%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 09:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-21 09:30
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 09:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 09:50
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.29%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 09:15
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.16%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.47%EV -6.54%E -2.41%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 08:20
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.16%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.47%EV -6.54%E -2.41%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-21 08:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 09:50
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 09:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-21 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-21 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.02%EV -12.54%E -5.27%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -12.38%E -4.86%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.43%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-21 09:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.15%EV -13.64%E -5.80%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.23%EV -12.38%E -4.86%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-21 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.69%EV -14.37%E -6.17%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.52%EV -9.98%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.79%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-21 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.95%EV -19.15%E -8.71%K -15.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.96%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.09%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-21 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-10-21 09:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-10-21 10:00
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-10-21 09:45
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-10-21 10:00
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.72%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.90%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%3.1%2026-10-21 10:00