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Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avispa Fukuoka (Local)
Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV +0.956%
Edge +0.228%
Kelly +0.299%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%24.04%24.08%25.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.773.754.2028.99%26.55%26.67%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gamba Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 47.41%2.11fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.75%47.39%47.33%48.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.931.942.0053.76%51.75%51.41%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.87%28.56%28.59%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.193.203.4132.79%31.35%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 24.04%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 47.41%; Draw: 28.55%. For Avispa Fukuoka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.956%.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV +0.956%E +0.228%K +0.299%G +0.003% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.61%EV -5.66%E -2.84%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36%EV -2.63%E -0.772%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -4.33%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.81%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -7.49%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.35%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -5.05%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -8.50%E -4.40%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -4.35%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.20%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 05:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.86%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.58%EV -6.13%E -3.10%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.86%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.58%EV -6.13%E -3.10%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -9.86%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -7.55%E -3.87%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -5.18%E -2.59%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-21 05:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -9.45%E -4.95%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.63%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -13.47%E -3.74%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.82%EV -8.03%E -4.14%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -7.20%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -13.95%E -3.90%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.92%EV -11.34%E -6.07%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 28.58%EV -12.34%E -4.02%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-21 05:18 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.55%EV -14.67%E -4.13%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.87%EV -11.82%E -6.35%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.58%EV -12.91%E -4.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -17.07%E -4.95%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -10.87%E -5.78%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.87%EV -10.06%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.21%EV -17.07%E -4.95%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.27%EV -10.87%E -5.78%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -12.91%E -4.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-21 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.67% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 05:15 |