Language:English
Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avispa Fukuoka (Local)
Prediction 30.87%3.24fair odd
EV -0.279%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.125%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.44%30.99%30.73%34.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.892.903.2337.74%34.61%34.48%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fagiano Okayama (Visit)
Prediction 38.11%2.62fair odd
EV +0.233%
Edge +0.089%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.52%37.99%38.21%39.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.462.452.6345.45%40.64%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.731%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.28%31.02%31.07%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1535.71%33.38%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 30.87%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 38.11%; Draw: 31.02%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.233%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -15.10%E -5.49%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV +0.233%E +0.089%K +0.143%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -15.10%E -5.49%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV +0.233%E +0.089%K +0.143%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:16 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:16 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:16 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -0.910%E -0.350%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -18.19%E -6.86%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -2.82%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -18.19%E -6.86%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -2.82%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-05 06:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -4.72%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -2.30%E -0.731%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 06:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.51%EV -0.279%E -0.086%K -0.125%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.28%EV -5.10%E -2.05%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.20%EV -8.20%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 08:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -1.20%E -0.377%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.30%EV -6.25%E -2.54%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.26%EV -9.44%E -3.23%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -1.20%E -0.377%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.30%EV -6.25%E -2.54%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.26%EV -9.44%E -3.23%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 10:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.03%EV -1.82%E -0.573%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.97%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.00%EV -4.47%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 08:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.29%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 06:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.92%E -3.02%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -2.30%E -0.731%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -8.92%E -3.02%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -10.47%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 06:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.63%E -2.70%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.47%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.86%EV -7.77%E -3.21%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.47%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.86%EV -7.77%E -3.21%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-05 08:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -10.47%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -3.85%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.47%E -3.61%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -4.29%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -11.61%E -4.07%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 20:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 04:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 04:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 04:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 04:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.53%E -3.56%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-05 04:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.29%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.95%EV -8.91%E -3.73%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 08:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -7.38%E -2.46%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -9.29%E -3.91%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -10.68%E -3.71%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -13.55%E -4.84%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -15.10%E -5.49%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -16.64%E -6.16%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -12.34%E -5.37%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.99%EV -10.06%E -3.47%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -13.55%E -4.84%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 38.68%EV -13.49%E -5.94%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 29.97%EV -9.13%E -3.11%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-04 23:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.04%EV -13.55%E -4.84%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.50%EV -16.15%E -7.34%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.49% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.40% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 14:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 31.63% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 38.07% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 30.30% | 16.2% | 2026-10-04 23:30 |