The School of Odds
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US Catanzaro 1929 v Padova

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 16:15 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 1–1 Padova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 40.84%2.45fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%40.81%40.81%42.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.242.252.3850.76%44.71%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 30.98%3.23fair odd
EV +0.673%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.299%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.88%31.00%30.93%32.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.2536.36%33.69%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.18%3.55fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.390%
Kelly -0.546%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%28.19%28.27%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.72%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 40.84%; Padova (Visit): 30.98%; Draw: 28.18%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.673%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -2.80%E -1.17%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV +0.673%E +0.207%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-31 16:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.673%E +0.207%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 15:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.673%E +0.207%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 15:35
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -0.876%E -0.274%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:53
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.84%E -2.08%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 14:25
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.10%EV -3.20%E -1.35%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 16:10
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 15:35
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:50
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:51
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:50
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:51
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:51
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:51
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:50
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 16:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 15:50
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -3.97%E -1.28%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.52%E -1.81%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 15:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:19
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 15:34
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.15%EV -7.70%E -3.41%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.00%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -5.87%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 12:49
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 14:20
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 14:20
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -12.19%E -5.67%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 15:50
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 15:51
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.07%E -2.36%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.77%EV -12.60%E -5.89%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -8.62%E -2.92%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-31 15:51
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -13.41%E -6.33%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -8.62%E -2.92%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -13.41%E -6.33%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.18%EV -8.62%E -2.92%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 15:55
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -1.37%E -0.390%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 15:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 08:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 08:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 08:25
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -10.15%E -4.61%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.17%E -3.51%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.79%E -3.75%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -4.18%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 16:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.79%E -3.75%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -4.18%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 16:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.16%EV -13.01%E -6.11%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.55%EV -11.10%E -3.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-31 15:48
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.18%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 08:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.18%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 15:10
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -4.02%E -1.71%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-31 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.00%EV -13.41%E -6.33%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.50%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.50%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-31 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.82%EV -16.27%E -7.94%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.08%EV -11.72%E -4.11%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.11%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.85%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-31 15:55
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -13.27%E -4.74%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -1.37%E -0.390%K -0.546%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 13:10
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -13.27%E -4.74%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -4.18%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 03:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -13.27%E -4.74%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.00%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 15:55
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.56%EV -14.23%E -6.78%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.17%EV -13.27%E -4.74%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -9.82%E -3.07%K -4.46%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-31 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 42.37%EV -19.54%E -9.92%K -20.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.81%EV -13.27%E -4.74%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.82%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-31 15:49
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.82%E -5.39%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 08:05
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.82%E -5.39%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.82%E -5.39%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -14.82%E -5.39%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.41%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 08:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.15%EV -14.23%E -6.78%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.42%EV -14.82%E -5.39%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.43%EV -11.23%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-31 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%0.4%2026-10-31 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%0.7%2026-10-31 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%0.7%2026-10-31 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%0.7%2026-10-31 16:10
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.1%2026-10-31 16:10

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