The School of Odds
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US Catanzaro 1929 v Modena

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 33.47%2.99fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.781%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.89%33.57%33.33%34.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.662.9241.67%37.26%37.59%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Modena (Visit)

Prediction 35.75%2.80fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.33%35.71%35.79%36.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.592.7041.67%38.86%38.61%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.79%3.25fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.38%30.72%30.88%31.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.922.983.1337.74%34.20%33.61%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 33.47%; Modena (Visit): 35.75%; Draw: 30.79%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.17%EV -2.28%E -0.781%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.95%EV -3.63%E -1.16%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.89%EV -2.95%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.32%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.89%EV -2.95%E -1.02%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.32%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.41%EV -6.63%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.13%EV -7.78%E -3.01%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -5.79%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 18:40
Bovada🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.11%EV -6.97%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.68%EV -7.78%E -3.01%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -9.17%E -3.11%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -9.64%E -3.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -12.32%E -4.70%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -6.35%E -2.42%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.34%EV -11.64%E -4.05%K -6.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-17 18:45
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -12.99%E -5.00%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -7.06%E -2.72%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -11.33%E -3.93%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-17 18:45
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -12.99%E -5.00%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -14.21%E -5.92%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -7.63%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-17 04:09
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -16.34%E -6.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -10.64%E -4.25%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -13.79%E -4.93%K -7.66%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-17 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -16.34%E -6.53%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.30%EV -14.21%E -5.92%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.81%EV -15.33%E -5.58%K -8.76%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-17 18:46
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.42%EV -19.68%E -8.20%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.42%EV -14.21%E -5.92%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.17%EV -18.41%E -6.95%K -11.16%G +0.000%21.1%2026-03-17 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.