Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Mantova

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:01 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 1–3 Mantova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 42.51%2.35fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.03%42.28%42.55%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.202.202.3252.91%45.54%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 29.09%3.44fair odd
EV +0.366%
Edge +0.106%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%29.22%29.07%32.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.083.093.4537.74%32.50%32.36%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.50%28.38%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.253.4033.33%30.96%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 42.51%; Mantova (Visit): 29.09%; Draw: 28.40%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.366%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.22%EV -2.66%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV +0.366%E +0.106%K +0.150%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.75%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-11 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -1.09%E -0.320%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 12:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -1.09%E -0.320%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 12:44
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.03%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -1.67%E -0.494%K -0.702%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -9.68%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 12:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.11%EV -6.06%E -2.74%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -2.54%E -0.759%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 12:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:28
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 12:35
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.36%E -1.94%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:54
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:35
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -4.36%E -1.94%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 12:35
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:33
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:39
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:29
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:29
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.36%E -1.94%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:25
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 12:54
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 12:28
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 12:29
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:50
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:29
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:55
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:54
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 12:54
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 12:43
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.22%EV -13.71%E -6.75%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.48%EV -10.40%E -3.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 12:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.24%EV -12.86%E -6.27%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 12:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:54
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 12:54
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.61%E -4.00%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.02%EV -12.01%E -5.80%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-11 12:45
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -12.86%E -6.27%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-11 12:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 44.25%EV -19.66%E -10.40%K -22.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.88%EV -12.72%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.88%EV -14.80%E -4.93%K -7.40%G +0.000%19.6%2026-10-11 12:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -4.36%E -1.94%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -14.18%E -4.81%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 12:09
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:25
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:25
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -1.38%E -0.596%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -15.63%E -5.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:25
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -4.36%E -1.94%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -18.54%E -6.62%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-04 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.11%EV -5.21%E -2.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -18.54%E -6.62%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 12:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.11%EV -5.21%E -2.34%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -18.54%E -6.62%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 12:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -20.00%E -7.27%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-11 12:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 40.03%EV -9.03%E -4.22%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.33%EV -22.91%E -8.64%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-11 12:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-10-11 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-10-11 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-10-11 12:55
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-10-11 12:55
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.89%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-10-11 12:55