The School of Odds
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US Catanzaro 1929 v Ascoli

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 15:15 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 1–6 Ascoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 39.20%2.55fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%39.25%39.22%41.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.352.352.4848.78%42.64%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ascoli (Visit)

Prediction 32.52%3.07fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.99%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%32.37%32.49%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.822.803.2139.22%35.45%35.71%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.297%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.35%28.38%28.29%30.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.5033.33%30.91%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 39.20%; Ascoli (Visit): 32.52%; Draw: 28.27%. For Ascoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.68%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.16%EV +4.40%E +1.37%K +1.99%G +0.088%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.16%EV -9.24%E -2.88%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.03%EV -2.78%E -1.12%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV +2.45%E +0.777%K +1.14%G +0.028%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV +0.823%E +0.265%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV +0.823%E +0.265%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV +0.823%E +0.265%K +0.392%G +0.003%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 15:09
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -2.43%E -0.810%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 14:55
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -2.43%E -0.810%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 14:49
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -2.43%E -0.810%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 15:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -4.06%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 13:25
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.25%EV -5.13%E -2.12%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.31%EV -4.38%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.44%EV -5.56%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 15:01
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 13:25
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 14:59
picklebet_au🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 14:50
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -15.18%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -15.18%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 12:10
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.39%EV -9.05%E -3.90%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.06%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:25
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.39%EV -9.05%E -3.90%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.06%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:25
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.04%E -0.297%K -0.416%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.95%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 14:30
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:14
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 14:30
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 14:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 14:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 13:25
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 15:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 15:08
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -10.62%E -4.66%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 15:05
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.18%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 14:52
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 14:40
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.79%E -5.24%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.93%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.15%EV -11.78%E -3.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 14:48
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 14:40
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -8.11%E -2.50%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 14:40
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -7.87%E -3.35%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 12:25
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 12:15
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 12:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.21%EV -12.97%E -5.84%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.24%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.54%EV -13.76%E -4.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.13%EV -19.64%E -9.58%K -18.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.23%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.64%EV -13.76%E -4.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-24 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.35%EV -8.66%E -3.72%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -13.81%E -5.21%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.45%EV -9.05%E -3.90%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.67%EV -13.81%E -5.21%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.88%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -13.81%E -5.21%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -10.94%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-24 14:30
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.45%EV -15.71%E -7.31%K -13.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.19%EV -14.79%E -5.64%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.35%EV -6.70%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-24 15:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 38.38%EV -12.58%E -5.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.56%EV -17.07%E -6.69%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.06%EV -13.76%E -4.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-24 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-10-24 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-10-24 15:10
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-10-24 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-10-24 15:10
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.56%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.29%1.9%2026-10-24 15:10

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