Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol v Mantova

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol (Local)

Prediction 41.44%2.41fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.15%41.30%41.54%42.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.232.3548.78%45.06%44.84%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.440%
Kelly +0.595%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.79%26.62%26.20%30.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.373.303.8434.72%29.67%30.30%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.08%3.12fair odd
EV -0.567%
Edge -0.183%
Kelly -0.270%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%32.07%32.26%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.882.903.1037.74%34.66%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Südtirol (Local): 41.44%; Mantova (Visit): 26.48%; Draw: 32.08%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.85%EV -3.44%E -1.48%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.79%EV +1.69%E +0.440%K +0.595%G +0.010%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -11.15%E -4.03%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 17:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.02%E -0.545%K -0.747%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -11.79%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 11:10
Bovada🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.69%EV -5.92%E -2.61%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -2.02%E -0.545%K -0.747%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.34%EV -13.72%E -5.10%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 17:50
BetUS🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.69%EV -5.92%E -2.61%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -2.02%E -0.545%K -0.747%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.34%EV -13.72%E -5.10%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 17:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.71%EV -5.51%E -2.42%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -3.34%E -0.915%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 10:10
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.85%EV -7.17%E -3.20%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.82%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.33%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -8.00%E -3.60%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -4.14%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.18%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 13:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -13.40%E -4.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -3.85%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -13.40%E -4.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:19
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.00%E -3.60%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -7.62%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 10:10
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.00%E -3.60%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -7.62%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 10:10
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.77%E -1.26%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:19
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-24 03:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.79%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 17:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.95%EV -11.73%E -5.51%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -8.64%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.14%EV -10.83%E -3.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -12.97%E -6.18%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -8.64%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -11.79%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:04
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -3.77%E -1.26%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 17:44
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -3.77%E -1.26%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -12.97%E -6.18%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.69%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.71%EV -14.36%E -5.38%K -8.60%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-24 01:09
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -11.29%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 17:44
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -11.29%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -15.00%E -5.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -11.29%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 01:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 17:44
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -7.58%E -3.40%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -5.38%E -1.82%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 10:00
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -0.567%E -0.183%K -0.270%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 17:49
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 17:44
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.75%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.62%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 17:44
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 17:49
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 17:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -13.93%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -13.93%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 10:00
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.28%EV -9.65%E -4.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -13.93%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-22 10:00
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.93%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 17:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.91%EV -15.04%E -7.34%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -15.26%E -4.77%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -11.79%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-23 01:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.15%EV -11.31%E -5.29%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.58%E -5.26%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.90%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-22 10:00
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -0.567%E -0.183%K -0.270%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-24 03:50
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -0.567%E -0.183%K -0.270%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -0.567%E -0.183%K -0.270%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-24 03:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -0.567%E -0.183%K -0.270%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-24 03:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.14%EV -15.04%E -7.34%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.99%EV -7.62%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-22 07:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -23.73%E -8.24%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -7.62%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 40.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%3.4%2026-04-24 03:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 40.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%3.4%2026-04-24 03:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 40.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%3.4%2026-04-24 03:15
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 40.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%3.4%2026-04-24 03:20
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.62%4.0%2026-04-24 03:40