The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Südtirol v Cremonese

2026-11-21 14:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol (Local)

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV +0.033%
Edge +0.010%
Kelly +0.013%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.94%29.37%30.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.103.4533.33%31.71%32.26%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cremonese (Visit)

Prediction 41.22%2.43fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%41.25%40.82%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.192.282.3452.63%45.61%43.86%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.78%3.36fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.80%29.81%29.81%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.053.2035.09%32.73%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Südtirol (Local): 29.00%; Cremonese (Visit): 41.22%; Draw: 29.78%. For Südtirol (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.449. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.450, producing a positive expected value of +0.033%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV +0.033%E +0.010%K +0.013%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -8.49%E -3.82%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-09 18:19
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -4.32%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -11.38%E -5.29%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-09 13:59
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -4.32%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -11.38%E -5.29%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-09 14:00
Pinnacle🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -5.77%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.80%EV -3.54%E -1.51%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-09 15:00
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.22%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 27.59%EV -9.54%E -3.06%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.04%EV -17.56%E -8.78%K -17.56%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.38%EV -12.73%E -4.34%K -6.60%G +0.000%16.2%2026-11-09 13:59
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-09 14:35
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 14:04
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 14:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 14:05
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -10.12%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -15.50%E -7.56%K -14.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-09 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.18%EV -10.70%E -3.47%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.77%EV -6.02%E -2.64%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-09 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.65%EV -17.56%E -8.78%K -17.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -12.13%E -4.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-09 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 27.54%EV -13.01%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 43.48%EV -21.68%E -11.41%K -24.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 28.99%EV -15.11%E -5.30%K -8.17%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-09 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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