Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reggiana v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Reggiana 1–0 Sampdoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reggiana (Local)

Prediction 29.65%3.37fair odd
EV +0.814%
Edge +0.239%
Kelly +0.339%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.28%29.53%29.69%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.163.103.4034.48%31.60%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%41.33%41.11%44.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.192.202.3649.50%45.72%45.45%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -0.695%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.289%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%29.14%29.21%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.143.153.4034.72%31.80%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reggiana (Local): 29.65%; Sampdoria (Visit): 41.14%; Draw: 29.21%. For Reggiana (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.814%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV +0.814%E +0.239%K +0.339%G +0.003%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -12.78%E -6.03%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV +0.814%E +0.239%K +0.339%G +0.003%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -12.78%E -6.03%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 17:49
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV +0.814%E +0.239%K +0.339%G +0.003%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -12.78%E -6.03%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 18:20
BetUS🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -0.695%E -0.204%K -0.289%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -0.669%E -0.200%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -2.15%E -0.652%K -0.935%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -14.43%E -6.94%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -2.15%E -0.652%K -0.935%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -14.43%E -6.94%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:49
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.63%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.30%EV -4.96%E -2.15%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 18:20
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -3.63%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -15.25%E -7.40%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-08 17:49
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.79%EV -4.23%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.78%EV -2.91%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.43%EV -4.49%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 18:20
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.37%EV -4.23%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -6.61%E -2.91%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.84%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 18:24
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.12%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 17:54
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.12%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 18:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.12%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 18:19
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.12%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -5.12%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -16.89%E -8.36%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-08 17:49
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -6.60%E -2.09%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:19
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -6.60%E -2.09%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.49%E -2.40%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:25
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 18:14
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:24
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -6.20%E -2.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 17:54
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 17:55
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:25
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 17:54
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:14
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:14
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-08 17:30
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -9.56%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -9.56%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -9.56%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.50%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-08 18:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-08 18:20
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-08 18:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.82%EV -11.05%E -3.68%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -15.88%E -5.51%K -8.45%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -12.53%E -4.25%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 18:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -12.53%E -4.25%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -5.37%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.01%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%0.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-05-08 18:24