The School of Odds

Pisa v Padova

2026-08-22 15:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

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Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pisa (Local)

Prediction 54.33%1.84fair odd
EV -6.00%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%54.33%54.15%55.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7363%60%60%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 17.86%5.60fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.53%17.86%17.79%19.44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.915.005.3023%20%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.81%3.60fair odd
EV +0.103%
Edge +0.029%
Kelly +0.039%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.55%27.81%28.06%29.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.933.163.203.6034%32%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.25%EV -6.00%E -3.47%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -6.24%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV +0.103%E +0.029%K +0.039%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-23 23:04
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.32%EV -7.09%E -4.15%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -5.35%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 20:00
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.09%E -4.15%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.73%EV -7.13%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-23 20:00
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 53.43%EV -6.54%E -3.81%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.85%EV -8.02%E -1.56%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -11.02%E -3.44%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 20:00
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 53.43%EV -6.54%E -3.81%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.85%EV -8.02%E -1.56%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -11.02%E -3.44%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 20:00
1xBet1.69I 59.17%NM 53.78%EV -8.17%E -4.84%K -11.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -8.92%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.02%E -3.44%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-23 20:00
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 53.88%EV -9.26%E -5.55%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -10.70%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -11.02%E -3.44%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-23 19:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.88%EV -9.26%E -5.55%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -10.70%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -11.02%E -3.44%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-23 20:00
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.73%EV -9.80%E -5.91%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.03%EV -17.85%E -3.88%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.24%EV -13.80%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-23 19:59
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -9.26%E -5.55%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -19.63%E -4.36%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -16.58%E -5.53%K -8.29%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-23 22:30
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.80%EV -11.98%E -7.39%K -19.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.20%EV -16.06%E -3.42%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.00%EV -17.97%E -6.09%K -9.22%G +0.000%16.9%2026-07-23 19:59
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 52.23%EV -13.06%E -8.17%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.44%EV -23.21%E -5.40%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.33%EV -17.97%E -6.09%K -9.22%G +0.000%19.7%2026-07-23 20:00
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 52.80%EV -13.06%E -8.17%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.37%EV -17.85%E -3.88%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 28.83%EV -18.53%E -6.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%18.4%2026-07-23 20:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.