The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pisa v Padova

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pisa (Local)

Prediction 54.42%1.84fair odd
EV -5.85%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%54.26%54.42%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.671.691.7364.52%59.83%59.17%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 18.11%5.52fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -0.761%
Kelly -0.938%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.53%18.26%18.11%19.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.875.005.3022.22%20.53%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.422%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.49%27.47%29.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.173.203.6035.09%31.59%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pisa (Local): 54.42%; Padova (Visit): 18.11%; Draw: 27.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.25%EV -5.85%E -3.38%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -4.94%E -0.941%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -1.10%E -0.305%K -0.422%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 22:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -5.85%E -3.38%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.47%E -1.89%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-13 00:20
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.43%EV -6.40%E -3.72%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.85%EV -6.75%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 20:00
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.43%EV -6.40%E -3.72%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.85%EV -6.75%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.32%EV -6.94%E -4.06%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -4.03%E -0.761%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 20:00
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.94%E -4.06%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.73%EV -5.84%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.71%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-23 20:00
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -7.49%E -4.40%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -9.47%E -1.89%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 15:03
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.78%EV -8.03%E -4.75%K -11.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -7.66%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-23 20:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -9.12%E -5.46%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -18.52%E -4.12%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -17.58%E -5.86%K -8.79%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-23 22:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.97%EV -9.66%E -5.82%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -16.71%E -3.63%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.91%EV -13.46%E -4.27%K -6.26%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-27 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.57%EV -10.75%E -6.56%K -16.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.16%EV -18.52%E -4.12%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.27%EV -16.21%E -5.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-27 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -11.84%E -7.31%K -19.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -18.52%E -4.12%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.80%EV -11.84%E -7.31%K -19.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.20%EV -14.90%E -3.17%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.00%EV -18.96%E -6.43%K -9.72%G +0.000%16.9%2026-07-23 19:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 52.80%EV -12.93%E -8.08%K -21.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.37%EV -16.71%E -3.63%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 28.83%EV -19.50%E -6.66%K -10.11%G +0.000%18.4%2026-07-23 20:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 52.96%EV -15.65%E -10.10%K -28.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.24%EV -18.52%E -4.12%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 28.80%EV -21.70%E -7.61%K -11.73%G +0.000%21.8%2026-07-28 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.