The School of Odds
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Padova v Virtus Entella

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:02 UTC

Final: Padova 1–2 Virtus Entella

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova (Local)

Prediction 35.55%2.81fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.38%35.64%35.50%37.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.532.502.7444.44%39.46%40.00%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virtus Entella (Visit)

Prediction 32.41%3.09fair odd
EV -0.831%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%32.36%32.34%33.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.853.0638.46%35.01%35.09%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.05%3.12fair odd
EV -0.658%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%31.99%32.16%35.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.892.903.1038.46%34.60%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 35.55%; Virtus Entella (Visit): 32.41%; Draw: 32.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.658%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.33%EV -2.60%E -0.950%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.63%EV -0.831%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.04%EV -6.11%E -2.08%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 12:50
BetUS🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.33%EV -2.60%E -0.950%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.63%EV -0.831%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.04%EV -6.11%E -2.08%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 12:40
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -4.40%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 12:40
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 12:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -4.72%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.14%EV -8.99%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -4.72%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.14%EV -8.99%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 12:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.84%EV -5.09%E -1.91%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.87%EV -8.28%E -2.93%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.30%EV -7.71%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 10:45
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.67%E -3.04%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 12:44
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 12:40
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 12:49
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -5.47%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -16.68%E -6.42%K -10.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 12:45
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.26%EV -6.87%E -2.62%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.75%EV -0.979%E -0.317%K -0.468%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 12:50
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.55%EV -6.87%E -2.62%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.34%EV -7.71%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 12:54
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.47%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -7.71%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -7.58%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -13.48%E -4.99%K -7.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 12:40
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.85%EV -9.36%E -3.67%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.67%E -3.04%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.85%EV -9.36%E -3.67%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.67%E -3.04%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 12:55
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.63%EV -9.36%E -3.67%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.36%E -3.67%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -12.50%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:40
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.02%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 12:55
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -12.50%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -0.658%E -0.212%K -0.313%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 12:44
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -12.50%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -0.658%E -0.212%K -0.313%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 12:40
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.26%E -3.31%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.26%E -3.31%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.26%E -3.31%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -9.26%E -3.31%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -5.47%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 12:55
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.26%E -3.31%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -8.67%E -3.04%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 12:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 12:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 12:50
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 09:30
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 09:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.14%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 09:30
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:09
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -11.85%E -4.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.78%E -0.925%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.47%EV -12.20%E -4.94%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.09%EV -11.53%E -4.22%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.45%EV -13.48%E -4.99%K -7.93%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-17 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -12.91%E -5.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -12.50%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 12:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.61%EV -12.91%E -5.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.08%EV -11.85%E -4.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.31%EV -13.48%E -4.99%K -7.93%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-17 12:55
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -15.40%E -6.47%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 12:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -15.40%E -6.47%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.38%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -7.71%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 12:09
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -15.40%E -6.47%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.62%EV -12.50%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-17 10:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.87%EV -16.47%E -7.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -7.71%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.75%EV -16.47%E -7.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -7.64%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -8.67%E -3.04%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 12:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 37.62%EV -18.96%E -8.31%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.19%EV -10.88%E -3.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.19%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-17 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.26%EV -20.02%E -8.90%K -16.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.25%EV -15.74%E -6.05%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.49%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-17 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Matchbook◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-10-17 12:55