The School of Odds
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Padova v Südtirol

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Padova 2–0 Südtirol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova (Local)

Prediction 44.11%2.27fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.43%43.91%44.27%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.102.102.2054.35%47.65%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Südtirol (Visit)

Prediction 25.65%3.90fair odd
EV +0.813%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.277%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%25.68%25.49%27.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.503.9332.26%28.57%28.57%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.24%3.31fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.12%30.40%30.24%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.653.043.053.2537.74%32.87%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 44.11%; Südtirol (Visit): 25.65%; Draw: 30.24%. For Südtirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.813%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.18%EV -3.41%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.62%EV +0.813%E +0.207%K +0.277%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-27 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -6.50%E -3.06%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.043%E +0.011%K +0.015%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.69%EV -10.48%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.25%EV -6.50%E -3.06%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.043%E +0.011%K +0.015%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.69%EV -10.48%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV +0.043%E +0.011%K +0.015%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -19.86%E -7.49%K -12.04%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-27 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -2.52%E -0.664%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.44%EV -5.61%E -2.62%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -3.80%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -4.74%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -3.80%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 18:55
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -3.80%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-27 18:55
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.80%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.55%EV -4.57%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-27 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -5.09%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.92%EV -8.70%E -4.20%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -5.60%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.81%EV -5.65%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 16:39
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.37%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 18:54
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 18:25
picklebet_au🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-27 18:37
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -8.26%E -3.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 18:05
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -8.26%E -3.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 18:05
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 15:10
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.90%E -4.48%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-27 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.90%E -4.48%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-27 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -7.65%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -15.32%E -5.47%K -8.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 17:25
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -2.97%E -1.35%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -1.71%E -0.527%K -0.762%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-27 18:49
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-27 18:49
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -5.65%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -5.65%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 18:55
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:40
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.79%E -5.89%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.22%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -12.30%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-27 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -11.50%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-27 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.51%EV -13.11%E -6.66%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.56%EV -12.01%E -3.50%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.93%EV -11.39%E -3.89%K -5.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-27 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -2.97%E -1.35%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 18:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 18:50
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 18:50
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -8.26%E -3.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 18:50
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 18:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.58%E -4.67%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.27%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.56%EV -11.79%E -5.89%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-27 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.92%EV -12.67%E -6.40%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.57%EV -12.78%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.51%EV -13.81%E -4.85%K -7.47%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-27 18:50
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.29%E -1.98%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.23%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -5.17%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 45.56%EV -18.84%E -10.24%K -22.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.02%EV -14.07%E -4.20%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.41%EV -13.81%E -4.85%K -7.47%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-27 18:36
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -15.35%E -4.65%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 18:50
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -7.38%E -3.51%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -16.63%E -5.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-27 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.88%EV -8.26%E -3.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -17.91%E -5.60%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-27 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.00%EV -8.70%E -4.20%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -17.91%E -5.60%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.18%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.12%EV -9.14%E -4.44%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -17.91%E -5.60%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -7.76%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-27 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.05%EV -11.79%E -5.89%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -20.48%E -6.61%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.18%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-27 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-10-27 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31%1.4%2026-10-27 18:50

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