Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.96
assuming max odds 4.65
assuming max odds 3.53
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 49.22%; Carrarese (Visit): 23.44%; Draw: 27.34%. For Carrarese (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.98%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%EV -5.00%E -2.59%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.77%EV +8.98%E +1.93%K +2.46%G +0.221% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.18%EV -9.49%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-11 15:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.48%E -3.41%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV +5.46%E +1.21%K +1.56%G +0.085% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.48%E -3.41%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV +5.46%E +1.21%K +1.56%G +0.085% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV +3.12%E +0.709%K +0.918%G +0.029% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 15:08 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -11.40%E -6.34%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV +3.12%E +0.709%K +0.918%G +0.029% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -7.96%E -4.26%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV +0.777%E +0.181%K +0.236%G +0.002% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -0.394%E -0.093%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 14:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.38%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.57%E -0.373%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 15:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -1.57%E -0.373%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -1.57%E -0.373%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -1.57%E -0.373%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -1.57%E -0.373%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.53%EV -5.50%E -2.86%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.54%EV -5.32%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.94%EV -3.48%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -4.51%E -2.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 14:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 15:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.30%EV -6.97%E -3.69%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 14:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -9.93%E -5.42%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -6.25%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -17.97%E -5.99%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 14:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.60%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 14:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -7.96%E -4.26%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.60%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 13:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 14:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-11 14:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -9.93%E -5.42%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -10.42%E -5.72%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.53%EV -13.86%E -7.92%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%EV -9.77%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.96%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-10-11 14:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -7.96%E -4.26%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-11 15:08 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-11 15:08 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.18%EV -10.91%E -6.03%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.43%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.32%EV -11.40%E -6.34%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.82%EV -13.86%E -7.92%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -10.94%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-10-11 12:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -12.11%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.25%EV -3.53%E -1.80%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -12.11%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 15:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.48%E -3.41%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.11%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -7.47%E -3.97%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -12.11%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 15:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 14:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.99%E -3.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 15:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -8.45%E -4.54%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-11 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -8.94%E -4.83%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.93%E -5.42%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 13:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.93%E -5.42%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.93%E -5.42%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 13:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 49.22%EV -14.36%E -8.25%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -13.28%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%EV -15.24%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.01%EV -11.90%E -6.65%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.84%EV -13.75%E -3.74%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.16%EV -11.68%E -3.62%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-11 14:48 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.89%EV -9.43%E -5.13%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.65%EV -14.46%E -3.96%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-11 14:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 49.69%EV -16.82%E -9.95%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.65%EV -16.80%E -4.73%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.66%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 19.1% | 2026-10-11 14:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 15:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.72% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.09% | 2.6% | 2026-10-11 15:10 |