The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Modena v Mantova

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 14:02 UTC

Final: Modena 1–1 Mantova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 48.39%2.07fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.09%48.52%48.37%51.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.891.911.9858.82%52.80%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +0.742%
Kelly +0.977%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%24.67%24.83%26.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.604.1530.30%27.44%27.78%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.34%26.81%26.80%28.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.413.403.6031.75%29.30%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 48.39%; Mantova (Visit): 24.84%; Draw: 26.77%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.95%EV -4.18%E -2.11%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.36%EV +3.08%E +0.742%K +0.977%G +0.030%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-31 13:30
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV +1.84%E +0.448%K +0.593%G +0.011%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -15.31%E -8.75%K -20.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV +1.84%E +0.448%K +0.593%G +0.011%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 13:15
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -0.647%E -0.162%K -0.216%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -0.647%E -0.162%K -0.216%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -0.647%E -0.162%K -0.216%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 13:50
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -9.51%E -5.08%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -0.647%E -0.162%K -0.216%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -13.00%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 13:50
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.74%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.88%EV -1.14%E -0.287%K -0.384%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.39%EV -7.11%E -2.05%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -3.13%E -0.803%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -14.34%E -4.48%K -6.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.98%EV -3.63%E -0.935%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -7.91%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 12:59
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -4.37%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.97%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 13:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.23%EV -4.67%E -2.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -4.97%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 13:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 13:04
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 13:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -5.61%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -14.34%E -4.48%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 13:49
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -11.44%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -6.86%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -14.34%E -4.48%K -6.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-31 13:10
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 13:32
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 13:35
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 13:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 13:35
picklebet_au🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.25%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -8.10%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 13:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -6.60%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.63%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -6.60%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.63%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 10:10
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.83%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 13:05
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.83%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -9.34%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 13:05
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.63%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 13:15
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -6.60%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 13:04
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 13:15
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -3.63%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 13:29
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -3.63%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.79%EV -11.44%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -10.58%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.41%EV -9.52%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-31 13:08
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 13:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.32%EV -12.89%E -7.16%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.50%EV -11.82%E -3.33%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.18%EV -14.34%E -4.48%K -6.52%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-31 13:10
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 13:15
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.90%EV -8.54%E -4.52%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 10:09
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.13%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -10.32%E -3.08%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 13:15
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:08
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:10
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.02%E -4.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 10:10
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -9.51%E -5.08%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -7.64%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-31 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.93%EV -9.99%E -5.37%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -14.31%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 10:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.07%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -14.31%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-31 10:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.20%EV -10.96%E -5.96%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -14.31%E -4.15%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 10:10
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 13:05
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.57%E -3.96%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.74%EV -11.93%E -6.55%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.93%EV -16.79%E -5.01%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.33%EV -11.66%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-31 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 48.85%EV -17.73%E -10.43%K -25.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.79%EV -16.79%E -5.01%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.36%EV -15.67%E -4.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%20.4%2026-10-31 13:35
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.78%EV -11.44%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -18.03%E -5.46%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -8.98%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.91%EV -13.86%E -7.79%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.84%EV -18.03%E -5.46%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.24%EV -13.00%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-31 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-10-31 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-10-31 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-10-31 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-10-31 13:50
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.68%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.1%2026-10-31 13:50

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