Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mantova v Palermo

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 15:16 UTC

Final: Mantova 0–2 Palermo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mantova (Local)

Prediction 29.16%3.43fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.588%
Kelly +0.824%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%29.07%29.11%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.083.5036.36%32.21%32.52%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palermo (Visit)

Prediction 43.43%2.30fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%43.52%43.46%46.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.132.152.2553.19%46.86%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%27.41%27.43%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.333.5032.26%30.03%30.08%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantova (Local): 29.16%; Palermo (Visit): 43.43%; Draw: 27.41%. For Mantova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV +2.06%E +0.588%K +0.824%G +0.017%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.07%EV -10.53%E -5.11%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.40%EV -10.38%E -3.17%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV +2.06%E +0.588%K +0.824%G +0.017%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.07%EV -10.53%E -5.11%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.40%EV -10.38%E -3.17%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 14:30
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.70%EV +1.77%E +0.506%K +0.710%G +0.013%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.35%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:50
BetUS🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.70%EV +1.77%E +0.506%K +0.710%G +0.013%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.35%EV -6.54%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -0.857%E -0.252%K -0.357%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.32%EV -14.44%E -7.33%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 14:35
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -2.32%E -0.691%K -0.985%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 01:00
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.77%E -1.14%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 14:50
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.77%E -1.14%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 14:35
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.91%EV -4.06%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.01%E -1.82%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.06%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.23%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.32%EV -4.88%E -2.23%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.50%EV -5.44%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 06:00
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.23%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 14:35
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.23%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.23%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -7.49%E -3.52%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 21:14
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 00:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 05:58
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-16 15:59
picklebet_au🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 14:50
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:50
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -6.69%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 15:05
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.15%E -2.59%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.92%E -3.74%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-14 05:59
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.15%E -2.59%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.92%E -3.74%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-14 05:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-13 12:19
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-13 11:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-13 11:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-13 11:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-13 11:19
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -7.92%E -3.74%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 14:39
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.04%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 14:43
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -11.06%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.08%EV -11.94%E -3.95%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.48%EV -12.27%E -6.07%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-17 14:46
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.28%E -1.01%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 15:10
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 14:55
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 11:35
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-13 12:19
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.57%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-14 05:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 16:00
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 16:00
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.52%E -4.17%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -13.98%E -4.74%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-17 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.56%EV -13.98%E -4.74%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.60%EV -13.13%E -6.57%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.83%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-14 05:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 28.53%EV -13.98%E -4.74%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 44.76%EV -18.35%E -9.76%K -20.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-17 14:50
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.04%EV -15.44%E -5.32%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.56%EV -13.13%E -6.57%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-17 10:19
BetRivers🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -16.02%E -5.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.48%EV -5.75%E -2.65%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.06%EV -16.02%E -5.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.41%EV -6.19%E -2.86%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -16.89%E -5.93%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.39%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -16.89%E -5.93%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.51%EV -7.05%E -3.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -19.81%E -7.20%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.50%EV -10.09%E -4.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.27%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-17 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-10-17 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-17 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-17 15:10
Matchbook◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-10-17 15:10
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-10-17 15:10