Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia v Cesena FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 13:04 UTC

Final: Juve Stabia 2–0 Cesena FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia (Local)

Prediction 40.87%2.45fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%40.87%40.94%43.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.252.3948.78%44.45%44.44%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cesena FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV +1.41%
Edge +0.414%
Kelly +0.585%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.72%29.64%29.69%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.063.053.4136.36%32.67%32.79%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.460%
Kelly -0.655%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.61%29.49%29.38%32.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.083.133.3537.04%32.41%32.00%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juve Stabia (Local): 40.87%; Cesena FC (Visit): 29.74%; Draw: 29.39%. For Cesena FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.46%EV -2.32%E -0.971%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.35%EV +1.41%E +0.414%K +0.585%G +0.008%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.19%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -1.86%E -0.564%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -16.24%E -5.70%K -8.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -1.86%E -0.564%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 12:59
BetUS🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.31%EV -6.41%E -2.80%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -3.35%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 13:00
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -5.59%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.46%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.46%EV -5.36%E -1.66%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 12:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.29%EV -5.59%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 13:00
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 13:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:00
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -19.17%E -6.97%K -10.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -20.64%E -7.65%K -12.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 13:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -12.13%E -5.64%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -6.32%E -2.01%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -1.54%E -0.460%K -0.655%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.93%EV -6.82%E -2.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -6.32%E -2.01%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.18%EV -14.18%E -4.86%K -7.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.93%EV -6.82%E -2.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -6.32%E -2.01%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.18%EV -14.18%E -4.86%K -7.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 12:59
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 12:59
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 13:00
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 13:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -20.64%E -7.65%K -12.14%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-11 13:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -14.17%E -6.75%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.69%EV -12.13%E -5.64%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -9.30%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 12:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 12:59
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 13:00
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -8.86%E -3.97%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -8.86%E -3.97%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 13:00
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:01
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -3.96%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-11 12:59
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 13:00
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -14.17%E -6.75%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.84%EV -16.22%E -7.91%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-11 13:00
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -12.27%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 12:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -11.72%E -5.43%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.00%EV -12.27%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-11 13:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -14.17%E -6.75%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -12.27%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-11 12:59
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.00%E -2.61%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 12:59
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.04%E -3.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 12:59
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.13%E -5.64%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.76%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 12:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.00%EV -10.09%E -4.58%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.20%EV -18.22%E -6.62%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.79%EV -15.35%E -5.33%K -8.17%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-11 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-04-11 13:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-04-11 13:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-04-11 13:00
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 39.92%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%2.7%2026-04-11 13:00