Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona v Ascoli

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

61%

15%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona (Local)

Prediction 60.72%1.65fair odd

EV -5.88%

Edge -3.80%

Kelly -10.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.66%60.72%61.07%61.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.491.501.5571.43%67.22%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ascoli (Visit)

Prediction 15.12%6.61fair odd

EV +2.04%

Edge +0.303%

Kelly +0.355%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.52%15.12%15.19%15.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.405.995.706.7518.52%16.69%17.54%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.16%4.14fair odd

EV -3.35%

Edge -0.838%

Kelly -1.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.10%24.16%23.74%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.153.473.504.0031.75%28.78%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hellas Verona (Local): 60.72%; Ascoli (Visit): 15.12%; Draw: 24.16%. For Ascoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.42%EV -8.31%E -5.50%K -16.30%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 13.52%EV +2.04%E +0.303%K +0.355%G +0.007%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -15.43%E -4.41%K -6.17%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-07-23 20:00
FanDuel🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.07%EV -6.49%E -4.21%K -12.02%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -1.74%E -0.267%K -0.316%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -13.02%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-23 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -1.74%E -0.267%K -0.316%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -13.02%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-15 23:34
SportsBet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -5.07%K -14.82%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -1.74%E -0.267%K -0.316%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -15.43%E -4.41%K -6.17%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-07-23 20:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -1.74%E -0.267%K -0.316%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -15.43%E -4.41%K -6.17%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-07-23 19:59
Coolbet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.14%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.16%EV -5.51%E -0.882%K -1.05%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -3.35%E -0.838%K -1.12%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-28 23:14
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 59.06%EV -9.53%E -6.39%K -19.44%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 15.44%EV -13.83%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -16.64%E -4.82%K -6.79%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-07-27 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 58.56%EV -11.96%E -8.25%K -26.57%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 14.90%EV -13.83%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 26.54%EV -22.68%E -7.09%K -10.31%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-07-23 19:59
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 58.67%EV -12.56%E -8.72%K -28.55%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 15.09%EV -15.34%E -2.74%K -3.34%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 26.24%EV -22.20%E -6.89%K -10.00%G +0.000%	18.4%	2026-07-23 20:03
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -12.56%E -8.72%K -28.55%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -16.85%E -3.06%K -3.75%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-07-25 17:10
Sky Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 57.66%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 15.73%EV -16.85%E -3.06%K -3.75%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%EV -21.47%E -6.61%K -9.54%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-07-23 22:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 58.84%EV -10.74%E -7.31%K -22.85%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 15.73%EV -16.85%E -3.06%K -3.75%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -17.85%E -5.25%K -7.44%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-07-27 16:49
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 58.70%EV -14.99%E -10.71%K -37.48%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 15.22%EV -18.36%E -3.40%K -4.17%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 26.09%EV -23.89%E -7.58%K -11.11%G +0.000%	21.7%	2026-07-28 07:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.