Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona v Arezzo

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:17 UTC

Final: Hellas Verona 5–0 Arezzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona (Local)

Prediction 51.54%1.94fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.69%51.60%51.49%53.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.781.801.8659.88%56.06%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arezzo (Visit)

Prediction 20.98%4.77fair odd
EV +5.34%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 5.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.20%20.88%21.02%22.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.355.0225.00%23.00%22.99%19.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.300%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%27.52%27.49%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.303.6032.26%29.95%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hellas Verona (Local): 51.54%; Arezzo (Visit): 20.98%; Draw: 27.48%. For Arezzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.11%EV -4.65%E -2.52%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.20%EV +5.34%E +1.06%K +1.33%G +0.071%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.69%EV -7.68%E -2.28%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.17%EV -7.75%E -4.33%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -1.38%E -0.293%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.96%EV -8.22%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:01
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.28%EV -8.78%E -4.96%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.69%EV -1.38%E -0.293%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 14:58
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.42%EV -11.35%E -6.60%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -1.38%E -0.293%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 15:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -4.65%E -2.52%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 15:05
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.08%E -0.300%K -0.416%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 15:05
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:05
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -4.65%E -2.52%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -4.65%E -2.52%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 15:00
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:14
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:10
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -10.32%E -5.93%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:15
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.77%EV -7.75%E -4.33%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.03%EV -14.00%E -4.47%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 15:03
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -5.57%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 15:05
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:50
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.65%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -7.67%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -8.72%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:05
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.06%EV -4.14%E -2.22%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.88%EV -8.93%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.06%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 15:10
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -10.84%E -6.26%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -9.14%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:05
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -9.14%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:09
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -9.14%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:14
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -9.14%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-06 15:00
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -9.77%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:05
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -9.77%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -10.32%E -5.93%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -9.77%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.02%EV -8.78%E -4.96%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -10.82%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.91%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -10.82%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 15:05
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -4.65%E -2.52%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 14:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 15:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 15:14
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 15:15
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -10.84%E -6.26%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 14:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.20%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%EV -11.87%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.74%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.19%EV -12.92%E -3.11%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.17%EV -10.84%E -6.26%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%EV -13.97%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.17%EV -10.84%E -6.26%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%EV -13.97%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.39%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.31%EV -13.97%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-06 15:15
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.06%E -4.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.06%E -4.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 14:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.06%E -4.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -10.84%E -6.26%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -16.06%E -4.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -9.32%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.34%EV -13.93%E -8.34%K -20.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.44%EV -16.06%E -4.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.22%EV -13.45%E -4.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-06 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31%0.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31%0.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.18%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-06 15:15
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 51.85%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-09-06 15:15
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.85%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-09-06 15:15