The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Empoli v Vicenza

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:31 UTC

Final: Empoli 0–2 Vicenza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli (Local)

Prediction 37.11%2.69fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.70%37.12%37.17%38.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.462.452.6445.45%40.60%40.82%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vicenza (Visit)

Prediction 34.66%2.89fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.39%34.69%34.58%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.632.7940.00%37.86%38.02%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.24%3.54fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.469%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%28.20%28.24%29.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.78%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 37.11%; Vicenza (Visit): 34.66%; Draw: 28.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.67%EV -2.04%E -0.772%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.69%EV -3.31%E -1.19%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.64%EV -4.56%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 15:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.74%EV -4.70%E -1.71%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.41%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 09:30
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -8.16%E -3.08%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.17%E -0.335%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -5.04%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -5.04%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 15:25
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -5.04%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 15:25
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.70%EV -3.52%E -1.35%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.29%EV -8.85%E -3.37%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 15:07
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -5.38%E -2.11%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -4.70%E -1.71%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -5.41%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.38%E -2.11%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 09:31
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -5.38%E -2.11%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -11.05%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:07
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -6.49%E -2.58%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -8.16%E -3.08%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.08%EV -11.05%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -6.49%E -2.58%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -8.16%E -3.08%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.08%EV -11.05%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 09:31
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -4.70%E -1.71%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 13:01
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 08:57
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 09:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 15:39
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 15:40
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -5.41%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 15:40
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -13.36%E -5.34%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.20%E -3.51%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 09:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.20%E -3.51%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 09:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.20%E -3.51%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 09:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.20%E -3.51%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 09:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -7.23%E -2.89%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 15:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.83%EV -8.72%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.97%EV -5.04%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 08:45
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.83%EV -8.72%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.97%EV -5.04%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 08:50
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:19
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 09:30
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:04
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:40
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-23 09:20
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -9.09%E -3.71%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.04%EV -13.36%E -5.34%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -15.29%E -5.10%K -7.65%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-23 15:25
picklebet_au🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.94%E -4.56%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 09:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -10.94%E -4.56%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 09:30
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -10.94%E -4.56%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 08:57
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -10.94%E -4.56%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 08:57
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -10.94%E -4.56%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 08:57
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -11.68%E -4.91%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -8.85%E -3.37%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -8.23%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-21 22:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -12.80%E -5.45%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -6.43%E -2.38%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-23 09:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.07%EV -12.80%E -5.45%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -8.23%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 22:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -12.80%E -5.45%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.91%EV -8.85%E -3.37%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.14%EV -10.49%E -3.31%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -12.80%E -5.45%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.26%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-21 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -13.54%E -5.81%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.89%E -3.81%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -9.64%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-21 22:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.45%EV -13.91%E -6.00%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.07%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%EV -13.88%E -4.55%K -6.77%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-23 09:39
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -14.65%E -6.37%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -13.36%E -5.34%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.23%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-23 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -16.51%E -7.34%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -13.36%E -5.34%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-21 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.70%EV -18.36%E -8.35%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.39%EV -11.63%E -4.56%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.91%EV -13.88%E -4.55%K -6.77%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-23 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.18%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.16%0.9%2026-10-23 15:55
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.18%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.16%0.9%2026-10-23 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.09%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.82%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.09%1.1%2026-10-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.09%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.82%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.09%1.1%2026-10-23 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.09%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.82%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.09%1.1%2026-10-23 15:55