Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli v Pescara

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 14:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli (Local)

Prediction 44.21%2.26fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.69%44.24%44.27%47.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.042.052.1853.19%49.08%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pescara (Visit)

Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV -0.287%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%28.00%28.08%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.333.333.5533.90%30.07%30.08%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.70%3.61fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.98%27.75%27.65%30.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.313.353.5037.04%30.20%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 44.21%; Pescara (Visit): 28.09%; Draw: 27.70%. For Pescara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.287%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -3.62%E -1.66%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -0.287%E -0.081%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 14:00
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.15%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.91%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 14:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -4.94%E -2.30%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -11.52%E -3.66%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.63%EV -5.39%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.63%EV -5.39%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -6.27%E -2.96%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 13:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -5.62%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 13:59
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 13:59
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 14:00
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 14:00
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -16.90%E -5.63%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 13:58
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -7.15%E -3.41%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -12.75%E -4.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.11%EV -7.60%E -3.63%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -5.91%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 13:58
BetUS🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.92%EV -7.60%E -3.63%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -5.91%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 13:59
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.04%E -3.86%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -0.287%E -0.081%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.52%E -3.66%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -5.82%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-22 13:59
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 13:59
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -10.12%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -19.67%E -6.78%K -10.35%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -7.31%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -19.67%E -6.78%K -10.35%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -17.14%E -5.81%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.69%EV -9.37%E -4.57%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.71%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -20.22%E -7.02%K -10.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-22 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -11.58%E -5.79%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-22 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -11.58%E -5.79%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -15.74%E -5.25%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-22 13:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -11.58%E -5.79%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.74%E -5.25%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -16.90%E -5.63%K -8.45%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -12.46%E -6.29%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -14.33%E -4.70%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV -14.23%E -7.33%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 13:57
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.93%EV -14.67%E -7.60%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.97%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.10%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.16%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-22 13:58
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -15.11%E -7.87%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -3.10%E -0.897%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -15.11%E -7.87%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -3.10%E -0.897%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -3.05%E -0.872%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.17%EV -16.00%E -8.42%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.46%EV -12.93%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.38%EV -25.21%E -9.34%K -14.83%G +0.000%21.9%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.67%EV -16.88%E -8.98%K -19.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.23%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%1.9%2026-03-22 14:00