Language:English
Empoli v Palermo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Empoli (Local)
Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%26.13%26.01%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.7031.25%28.74%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palermo (Visit)
Prediction 47.55%2.10fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.83%47.56%47.66%48.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.941.952.0358.48%51.65%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.33%3.80fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.953%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.04%26.32%26.33%27.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.403.7030.77%29.00%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 26.12%; Palermo (Visit): 47.55%; Draw: 26.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -2.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -3.37%E -0.911%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.01%EV -5.37%E -2.70%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.89%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -3.37%E -0.911%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -11.08%E -5.92%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.93%EV -4.15%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.88%EV -3.47%E -1.71%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -7.84%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.90%E -2.45%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 05:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 13:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 13:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.46%EV -6.32%E -3.21%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.56%EV -7.31%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -8.22%E -4.26%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-02 13:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.43%EV -7.31%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.29%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.52%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 13:17 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.29%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.52%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -7.29%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.49%EV -8.70%E -4.53%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -7.29%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.49%EV -8.70%E -4.53%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -9.17%E -4.80%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -2.57%E -0.695%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 16:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -9.17%E -4.80%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -2.57%E -0.695%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 07:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.59%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -9.90%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -4.90%E -2.45%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -9.16%E -2.65%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -9.90%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.98%EV -9.17%E -4.80%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 16:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 05:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.75%E -3.99%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -6.52%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 05:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.84%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-04 05:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -9.17%E -4.80%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 13:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -11.08%E -5.92%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-04 11:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -13.11%E -3.97%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -12.03%E -6.50%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-02 13:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -12.03%E -6.50%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-02 13:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -12.03%E -6.50%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-02 13:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 25.93%EV -11.73%E -3.47%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.90%EV -12.98%E -7.09%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -11.79%E -3.52%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -12.51%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -10.60%E -5.64%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -7.84%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -12.51%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -14.42%E -4.44%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 13:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -12.51%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -7.27%E -3.73%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -14.42%E -4.44%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.55%EV -12.51%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.08%EV -8.22%E -4.26%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.42%E -4.44%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-03 13:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.90%EV -12.51%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%EV -12.98%E -7.09%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -14.42%E -4.44%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-10-05 13:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -13.82%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.65%EV -12.50%E -6.80%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -10.47%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -13.82%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.88%EV -11.08%E -5.92%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -13.11%E -3.97%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-02 06:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.64%EV -15.12%E -4.65%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 48.73%EV -18.69%E -10.93%K -26.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.64%EV -14.42%E -4.44%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%EV -16.43%E -5.13%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.76%EV -12.03%E -6.50%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.21%EV -13.11%E -3.97%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79% | 16.7% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |