The School of Odds
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Cesena FC v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%34.47%34.54%35.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.622.8041.67%38.68%38.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%36.52%36.31%38.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.502.6044.44%40.67%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -0.876%
Edge -0.258%
Kelly -0.365%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.98%29.00%29.15%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.033.053.4035.46%32.97%32.79%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 34.54%; Sampdoria (Visit): 36.31%; Draw: 29.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -0.876%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -3.30%E -1.18%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -0.876%E -0.258%K -0.365%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 13:35
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.62%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-23 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.62%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-13 00:20
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.44%EV -7.45%E -2.78%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -6.32%E -2.45%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.62%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-23 20:00
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.44%EV -7.45%E -2.78%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -6.32%E -2.45%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.62%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-23 20:00
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -8.48%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -7.41%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -11.08%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.52%E -3.63%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.54%E -4.18%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 19:59
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.52%E -3.63%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.54%E -4.18%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 20:00
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.66%E -5.46%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.85%E -5.36%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -9.62%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -13.66%E -5.46%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.40%EV -12.85%E -5.36%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -11.08%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-27 16:49
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.37%EV -13.66%E -5.46%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -12.85%E -5.36%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.83%EV -16.04%E -5.57%K -8.53%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-23 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -13.66%E -5.46%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.36%EV -14.67%E -6.24%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.46%EV -15.45%E -5.33%K -8.13%G +0.000%17.0%2026-07-23 19:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.20%EV -14.35%E -5.79%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 36.56%EV -15.76%E -6.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.25%EV -15.45%E -5.33%K -8.13%G +0.000%17.9%2026-07-23 20:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.97%EV -15.39%E -6.28%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.46%EV -14.67%E -6.24%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.56%EV -12.54%E -4.18%K -6.27%G +0.000%16.7%2026-07-27 16:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.27%EV -17.12%E -7.13%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.56%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 29.17%EV -17.79%E -6.31%K -9.77%G +0.000%21.6%2026-07-28 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.