The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cesena FC v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 2–1 Empoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 46.19%2.17fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.69%46.32%46.13%48.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.782.002.002.1056.18%50.11%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV +4.21%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%25.48%25.44%27.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.533.504.0832.26%28.29%28.57%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.300%
Kelly -0.421%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%28.20%28.42%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.263.253.5033.33%30.68%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 46.19%; Empoli (Visit): 25.54%; Draw: 28.27%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%EV -5.78%E -2.83%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.71%EV +4.21%E +1.03%K +1.37%G +0.057%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-27 18:50
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -0.390%E -0.100%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -14.55%E -7.87%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -0.390%E -0.100%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%EV -5.78%E -2.83%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -1.67%E -0.433%K -0.585%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.14%EV -5.78%E -2.83%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -1.67%E -0.433%K -0.585%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16%EV -4.85%E -2.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -2.94%E -0.775%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-27 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.22%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 11:40
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -4.22%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.62%EV -9.47%E -4.83%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -4.22%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 18:55
picklebet_au🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -5.50%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-27 18:37
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -11.78%E -6.17%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -5.50%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -11.78%E -6.17%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -5.50%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 18:55
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.22%EV -3.01%E -1.43%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.74%EV -5.75%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.04%EV -7.55%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -6.78%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 18:30
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -6.78%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.78%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 11:40
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.78%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 11:40
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.05%E -0.300%K -0.421%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 18:18
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 18:37
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 18:36
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 18:37
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 18:37
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 18:37
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -11.78%E -6.17%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-27 18:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.15%EV -8.55%E -4.32%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -9.33%E -2.63%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 11:50
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 18:39
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 18:38
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.19%EV -12.24%E -6.44%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.22%EV -11.12%E -3.19%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.59%EV -13.21%E -4.30%K -6.38%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-27 18:35
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.88%E -3.44%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -5.29%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-27 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -10.40%E -5.36%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -11.88%E -3.44%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-27 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.27%EV -13.17%E -7.00%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.21%EV -11.88%E -3.44%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -13.77%E -4.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:05
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.93%E -1.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:04
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-27 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-27 18:18
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -8.55%E -4.32%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 18:25
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 18:18
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 18:17
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 18:18
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-27 18:36
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.24%EV -17.79%E -9.99%K -22.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.73%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.03%EV -15.19%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-27 18:36
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -16.99%E -5.23%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -16.99%E -5.23%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -9.01%E -4.57%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -16.99%E -5.23%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.69%EV -8.55%E -4.32%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -18.27%E -5.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-27 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -11.78%E -6.17%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -20.82%E -6.72%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-27 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-10-27 18:55

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