The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cesena FC v Avellino

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 15:17 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 1–1 Avellino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 41.06%2.44fair odd
EV -0.218%
Edge -0.090%
Kelly -0.153%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.63%40.97%41.07%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.232.252.4350.25%44.90%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avellino (Visit)

Prediction 29.66%3.37fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.508%
Kelly +0.717%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.37%29.62%29.58%31.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.103.103.4334.84%32.21%32.26%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.28%3.42fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.42%29.35%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.133.153.3034.72%31.95%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 41.06%; Avellino (Visit): 29.66%; Draw: 29.28%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%EV -0.218%E -0.090%K -0.153%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.25%EV +1.74%E +0.508%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.87%EV -11.00%E -3.62%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-18 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -11.72%E -5.45%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -2.11%E -0.641%K -0.919%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -13.64%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 14:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.81%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 14:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.90%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.86%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 15:00
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 11:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 14:54
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 15:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 15:10
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 15:09
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.50%E -1.49%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 15:03
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -3.09%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -5.67%E -1.78%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -6.90%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 15:04
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.56%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 14:58
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -6.56%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -15.10%E -5.21%K -7.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 15:04
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.86%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 15:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 10:49
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 15:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 14:59
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -10.71%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 14:54
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -10.71%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 14:54
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.66%E -4.39%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 14:55
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -12.95%E -6.11%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 14:19
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -15.69%E -5.45%K -8.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -13.77%E -6.56%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-18 14:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -13.77%E -6.56%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-18 14:19
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.66%E -4.39%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -15.10%E -5.21%K -7.95%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 14:59
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.53%E -3.12%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 14:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.50%EV -14.59%E -7.01%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -9.53%E -3.12%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.52%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 14:19
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.86%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 14:59
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 10:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 14:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 14:04
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -6.38%E -2.80%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -9.66%E -4.39%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.23%EV -12.95%E -6.11%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.01%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -13.64%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-18 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.20%EV -12.54%E -5.89%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.55%EV -11.90%E -4.01%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-18 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.28%EV -11.72%E -5.45%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-18 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.41%EV -17.05%E -8.44%K -16.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.04%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.55%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-18 14:19
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.98%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -4.86%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 15:08
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.98%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -4.86%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 15:06
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -13.77%E -6.56%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -13.98%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-18 12:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 42.15%EV -18.29%E -9.19%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.92%EV -13.98%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.92%EV -15.10%E -5.21%K -7.95%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-18 14:54
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -14.57%E -5.06%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 15:00
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -14.87%E -5.18%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -7.61%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -14.87%E -5.18%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.41%1.1%2026-10-18 15:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.41%1.1%2026-10-18 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.41%1.1%2026-10-18 15:04
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.41%1.1%2026-10-18 15:04
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.28%1.5%2026-10-18 15:04