The School of Odds
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Carrarese v Arezzo

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:01 UTC

Final: Carrarese 2–1 Arezzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carrarese (Local)

Prediction 51.69%1.93fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.41%51.94%51.58%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.761.771.8662.50%56.77%56.50%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arezzo (Visit)

Prediction 21.34%4.69fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.505%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%21.11%21.50%22.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.304.8026.32%23.20%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.586%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.58%26.95%26.91%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.433.403.6531.75%29.16%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carrarese (Local): 51.69%; Arezzo (Visit): 21.34%; Draw: 26.97%. For Arezzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV +2.42%E +0.505%K +0.638%G +0.015%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -9.65%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-28 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV +2.42%E +0.505%K +0.638%G +0.015%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -9.65%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-28 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.93%EV -8.51%E -4.81%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV +2.42%E +0.505%K +0.638%G +0.015%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -14.71%E -8.92%K -22.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV +2.42%E +0.505%K +0.638%G +0.015%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-28 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -4.37%E -2.36%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.19%EV +2.00%E +0.418%K +0.528%G +0.011%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.65%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-28 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -1.84%E -0.401%K -0.512%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -8.51%E -4.81%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -1.84%E -0.401%K -0.512%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -5.41%E -2.95%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 18:50
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -10.06%E -5.78%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -1.55%E -0.426%K -0.586%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-28 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -9.54%E -5.45%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -12.34%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-28 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -3.98%E -0.884%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -12.34%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.37%EV -3.86%E -2.07%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.72%EV -6.11%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.91%EV -4.25%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-28 18:50
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -5.92%E -3.25%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.11%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.45%EV -6.44%E -3.56%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -6.11%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 18:40
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -5.41%E -2.95%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.36%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -4.89%E -2.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -7.18%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 18:39
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.58%EV -13.16%E -7.83%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -7.18%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 18:40
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -8.51%E -4.81%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -7.61%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -2.90%E -0.806%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 18:55
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.61%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-28 18:54
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.37%E -2.36%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -8.25%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -2.90%E -0.806%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 18:54
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -5.41%E -2.95%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -8.25%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 18:47
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.26%EV -13.16%E -7.83%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -8.25%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-28 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.41%EV -13.68%E -8.19%K -20.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.25%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-28 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.31%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-28 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.43%EV -14.19%E -8.55%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.87%EV -9.31%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-28 18:40
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -8.51%E -4.81%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-28 18:55
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -9.65%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 18:40
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -9.65%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -9.54%E -5.45%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-28 18:48
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 18:50
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.54%E -5.45%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -10.38%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-28 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.33%EV -17.30%E -10.81%K -28.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.81%EV -12.51%E -3.05%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.86%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-28 18:40
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.58%EV -6.44%E -3.56%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-28 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.00%EV -7.99%E -4.49%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-28 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.80%EV -7.99%E -4.49%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 18:55
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 18:55
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-28 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -10.58%E -6.11%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -13.69%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-28 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.96%EV -11.09%E -6.45%K -15.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.13%EV -12.88%E -3.99%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-28 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.90%EV -12.13%E -7.13%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -14.65%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.47%EV -15.04%E -4.77%K -7.00%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-28 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -6.96%E -3.87%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -16.78%E -4.30%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.69%E -4.28%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-28 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.82%EV -16.26%E -10.04%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.53%EV -16.78%E -4.30%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.65%EV -15.04%E -4.77%K -7.00%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-28 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.46%EV -11.09%E -6.45%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -18.92%E -4.98%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -12.34%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-28 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-10-28 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-10-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-10-28 18:50
Matchbook◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-10-28 18:55
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%1.1%2026-10-28 18:55

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