Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Avellino v Vicenza

Inicio: 2026-08-29 19:02 UTC

Final: Avellino 3–0 Vicenza

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Avellino (Local)

Predicción 39.95%2.50momio equitativo
EV -1.73%
Ventaja -0.704%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.92%40.00%39.88%41.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.142.302.302.4646.73%43.57%43.48%40.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vicenza (Visitante)

Predicción 29.35%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.214%
Ventaja -0.063%
Kelly -0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.04%29.30%29.25%30.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.103.103.4035.09%32.21%32.26%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.70%3.26momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.448%
Kelly -0.650%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.24%30.70%30.87%32.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.013.003.2136.36%33.27%33.33%31.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Avellino (Local): 39.95%; Vicenza (Visitante): 29.35%; Empate: 30.70%. Para Vicenza (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.41. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.40, con un valor esperado de -0.214%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.38%EV -1.73%E -0.704%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.75%EV -1.09%E -0.325%K -0.462%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.87%EV -6.66%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 18:45
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81%EV -4.13%E -1.72%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -3.28%E -1.04%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.60%EV -4.13%E -1.72%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -6.35%E -2.08%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.13%E -1.72%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -9.11%E -3.08%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.13%E -1.72%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.81%EV -9.11%E -3.08%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 18:40
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.89%EV -4.93%E -2.07%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.53%EV -8.73%E -2.81%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.58%EV -1.44%E -0.448%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 18:55
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -4.93%E -2.07%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -5.33%E -2.25%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.62%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -3.28%E -1.04%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 13:15
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -6.13%E -2.61%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -3.15%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 18:40
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.13%E -2.61%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.13%E -2.61%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.89%EV -6.53%E -2.79%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.99%EV -5.50%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:40
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.92%EV -6.93%E -2.97%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.82%EV -12.49%E -4.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 18:33
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 18:35
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 18:35
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.35%E -2.08%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 18:35
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 17:15
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:05
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:05
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -12.49%E -4.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 18:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 07:35
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 07:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 07:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 07:35
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.12%E -3.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -14.03%E -5.01%K -7.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.92%E -3.91%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 07:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -10.12%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 13:05
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -10.12%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 18:44
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -10.12%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -4.81%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 18:43
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.12%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.12%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -15.56%E -5.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -10.92%E -4.90%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -0.214%E -0.063%K -0.089%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 18:10
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 14:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.53%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -6.35%E -2.08%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 13:05
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.57%E -4.02%K -6.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-29 07:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.50%EV -12.12%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.04%EV -14.03%E -5.01%K -7.79%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-29 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -14.12%E -6.57%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -10.49%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -9.42%E -3.19%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 13:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 39.97%EV -14.51%E -6.78%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.01%EV -16.36%E -5.74%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.01%EV -12.49%E -4.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-29 18:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-29 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-29 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-29 18:55
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-29 18:55
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.69%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.01%2.4%2026-08-29 18:40