The School of Odds
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Avellino v Mantova

2026-11-22 14:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avellino (Local)

Prediction 39.92%2.50fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.61%39.95%39.46%42.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.232.222.4551.02%44.75%45.05%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 30.93%3.23fair odd
EV +0.511%
Edge +0.157%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.95%30.91%31.57%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.832.982.973.2535.34%33.51%33.67%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.13%28.97%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.123.103.3035.09%32.00%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Avellino (Local): 39.92%; Mantova (Visit): 30.93%; Draw: 29.15%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.25, producing a positive expected value of +0.511%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%EV -8.58%E -3.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV +0.511%E +0.157%K +0.227%G +0.001%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -8.17%E -2.59%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-09 15:45
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.31%EV -11.37%E -5.12%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.63%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-09 13:59
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.31%EV -11.37%E -5.12%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.63%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-09 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.80%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-09 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.00%EV -2.19%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.96%EV -7.53%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.04%EV -4.09%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-09 15:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.77%EV -17.36%E -8.39%K -16.23%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.11%EV -8.15%E -2.74%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.11%EV -13.42%E -4.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%15.6%2026-11-09 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -16.16%E -7.70%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -11.09%E -3.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-09 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.62%EV -18.16%E -8.86%K -17.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.94%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.44%EV -12.55%E -4.18%K -6.27%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-09 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 42.10%EV -21.75%E -11.10%K -22.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 28.95%EV -11.86%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 28.95%EV -16.92%E -5.94%K -9.15%G +0.000%21.2%2026-11-09 14:00
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.61%EV -3.39%E -1.40%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.90%EV -12.17%E -4.28%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.49%EV -4.38%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-09 14:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -4.19%E -1.74%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.87%EV -12.48%E -4.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.36%EV -4.38%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.