The School of Odds
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Ascoli v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Ascoli 2–0 Sampdoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli (Local)

Prediction 43.71%2.29fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.49%43.75%43.68%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.122.102.2153.19%47.27%47.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 27.74%3.61fair odd
EV +2.90%
Edge +0.782%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%27.55%27.80%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.283.253.7133.90%30.52%30.77%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.70%28.52%30.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.4034.48%31.35%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ascoli (Local): 43.71%; Sampdoria (Visit): 27.74%; Draw: 28.55%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.17%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.07%EV +2.90%E +0.782%K +1.07%G +0.031%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-27 18:50
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -0.151%E -0.042%K -0.058%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 18:37
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.75%EV -15.64%E -8.10%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -0.151%E -0.042%K -0.058%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -5.59%E -2.59%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -1.54%E -0.433%K -0.603%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.59%EV -5.59%E -2.59%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -1.54%E -0.433%K -0.603%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 18:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -2.92%E -0.836%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.93%EV -9.08%E -4.37%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -2.92%E -0.836%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -12.91%E -4.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 18:37
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -2.92%E -0.836%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 18:37
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -2.92%E -0.836%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-27 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.09%EV -7.77%E -3.68%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.20%EV -5.14%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.71%EV -7.48%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 06:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.52%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.70%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%EV -4.34%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-27 07:35
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.03%E -2.80%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.70%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -2.91%E -0.857%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 12:22
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.70%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 19:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.03%E -2.80%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.70%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 07:35
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.03%E -2.80%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.70%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 18:49
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -3.40%E -1.54%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.06%EV -5.98%E -1.76%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.91%EV -6.05%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 18:50
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.03%E -2.80%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 01:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-27 12:22
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-27 18:37
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 18:25
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.34%E -3.46%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 07:35
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.34%E -3.46%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 07:35
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.47%E -2.57%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 12:22
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-27 12:22
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 12:21
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:25
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -9.86%E -3.03%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -17.19%E -5.93%K -9.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 18:29
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:17
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:17
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.84%E -1.75%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -5.77%E -1.75%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 07:35
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 06:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -12.58%E -6.29%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.25%E -3.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-27 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -12.58%E -6.29%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.80%EV -12.63%E -4.01%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.43%EV -12.05%E -3.91%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-27 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -7.34%E -3.46%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 18:18
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -7.34%E -3.46%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -10.05%E -3.19%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 18:18
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 07:31
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 01:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 01:05
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.40%E -5.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.62%E -2.70%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 01:05
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.58%E -6.29%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -14.02%E -4.52%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-25 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -8.21%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -15.41%E -5.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-27 18:18
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.50%EV -9.08%E -4.37%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -15.41%E -5.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.52%EV -11.48%E -3.70%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-27 18:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 44.58%EV -17.83%E -9.48%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.48%EV -15.41%E -5.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.94%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-27 18:36
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.41%EV -11.71%E -5.80%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.04%EV -18.18%E -6.16%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.55%EV -14.34%E -4.78%K -7.17%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-27 18:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-27 18:50
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%0.6%2026-10-27 18:45

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