The School of Odds
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Ascoli v Palermo

2026-11-06 19:30 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli (Local)

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.38%32.01%32.14%32.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.852.9538.46%35.19%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palermo (Visit)

Prediction 40.46%2.47fair odd
EV -6.94%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.94%40.46%40.44%41.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.222.282.3050.25%45.07%43.86%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.75%27.53%27.42%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.4532.26%30.05%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ascoli (Local): 32.01%; Palermo (Visit): 40.46%; Draw: 27.53%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.45, with an expected value of -5.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:34
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:35
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:44
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:44
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.57%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -7.75%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.02%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:44
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.15%E -2.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 19:44
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.15%E -2.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 19:44
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -10.99%E -4.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.15%E -2.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-30 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -10.99%E -4.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -10.52%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.79%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.83%EV -11.80%E -5.41%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -10.52%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-30 19:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.73%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.94%EV -12.20%E -5.62%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.52%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-30 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.14%EV -12.62%E -4.62%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.44%EV -12.20%E -5.62%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -11.90%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-30 19:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.82%EV -13.58%E -5.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -15.03%E -7.16%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.27%EV -13.28%E -4.21%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-30 19:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.81%EV -15.18%E -5.73%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -13.01%E -6.05%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.75%EV -10.52%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-30 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.38%EV -15.18%E -5.73%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 41.79%EV -19.48%E -9.79%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.83%EV -14.65%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-30 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.64%EV -16.78%E -6.45%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.41%EV -15.03%E -7.16%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.94%EV -13.28%E -4.21%K -6.18%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.