Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:01 UTC

Final: Ascoli 1–1 Empoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli (Local)

Prediction 52.77%1.89fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.32%52.97%52.58%56.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.751.751.8463.29%57.24%57.14%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 20.70%4.83fair odd
EV +8.03%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 5.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.98%20.59%20.82%23.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.404.405.2226.67%22.70%22.73%19.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.44%26.61%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.443.453.6031.75%29.09%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ascoli (Local): 52.77%; Empoli (Visit): 20.70%; Draw: 26.53%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.83. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.58%EV -6.59%E -3.72%K -8.56%G +0.000%5.22I 19.16%NM 18.51%EV +8.03%E +1.54%K +1.90%G +0.153%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.91%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 12:55
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -7.12%E -4.04%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.22I 19.16%NM 18.46%EV +8.03%E +1.54%K +1.90%G +0.153%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.77%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 12:50
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.31%EV -10.81%E -6.40%K -15.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +7.62%E +1.47%K +1.81%G +0.138%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:55
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.49%EV -10.81%E -6.40%K -15.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV +3.48%E +0.696%K +0.870%G +0.030%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -8.70%E -5.03%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV +1.41%E +0.288%K +0.361%G +0.005%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -8.70%E -5.03%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV +1.41%E +0.288%K +0.361%G +0.005%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -14.51%E -8.96%K -23.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV +1.41%E +0.288%K +0.361%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 12:40
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.06%E -3.41%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.44%EV +1.20%E +0.246%K +0.309%G +0.004%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 12:50
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -8.70%E -5.03%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -1.69%E -0.357%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -11.87%E -7.11%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -1.69%E -0.357%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -11.87%E -7.11%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -1.69%E -0.357%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 12:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.53%EV -6.59%E -3.72%K -8.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -2.73%E -0.581%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 12:35
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -7.12%E -4.04%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -2.73%E -0.581%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -5.01%E -2.78%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.80%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 12:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.01%E -2.78%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -6.06%E -3.41%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 12:35
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 12:54
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:45
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:45
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -11.87%E -7.11%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -6.87%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.59%E -3.72%K -8.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.93%EV -7.90%E -1.78%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.46%EV -6.61%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.95%E -2.17%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 12:35
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -8.17%E -4.70%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 12:45
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 12:34
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 12:35
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -11.01%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.59%E -3.72%K -8.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -12.04%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 12:35
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.72%EV -2.90%E -1.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 12:15
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -3.43%E -1.87%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 12:15
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.03%EV -7.12%E -4.04%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.51%EV -8.17%E -4.70%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.75%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 12:34
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -8.70%E -5.03%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:50
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.53%EV -11.87%E -7.11%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 12:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.17%EV -11.34%E -6.75%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -13.08%E -3.11%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -13.77%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 12:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.65%E -4.37%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -15.15%E -3.69%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.43%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -15.15%E -3.69%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -8.47%E -2.45%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 53.08%EV -16.62%E -10.52%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 20.71%EV -16.18%E -4.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.21%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.86%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-17 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -6.06%E -3.41%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -17.22%E -4.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 12:15
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -6.06%E -3.41%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -17.22%E -4.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.39%EV -6.59%E -3.72%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -18.25%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.32%EV -7.12%E -4.04%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.42%EV -18.25%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.77%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 12:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.33%EV -10.29%E -6.05%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.51%EV -21.36%E -5.62%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%EV -16.43%E -5.22%K -7.64%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-17 12:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.13%EV -8.70%E -5.03%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -22.39%E -5.97%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.33%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.11%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-10-17 12:50
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-10-17 12:55